Somalia is enduring its worst drought in 40 years, displacing millions and putting the nation on the frontline of climate insecurity. While famine has been narrowly averted, rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and environmental degradation continue to intersect with Somalia’s fragile social, political, and economic systems, threatening peace and human security. To address this challenge, advanced conflict modelling tools like the UN Environment Programme’s Strata platform combine environmental, climate, and socio-political data to identify potential instability hotspots. However, Somalia’s lack of a centralised data institution limits its ability to collect and analyse the vast information needed for accurate forecasting. Local, grassroots-level data – such as rural food production, land use, firewood collection patterns, and soil moisture – is critical to understanding and predicting climate-related insecurity.
Somalia is enduring one of its harshest droughts in decades, devastating rural livelihoods through massive livestock losses, crop failures, and forced displacement. The crisis has triggered child marriages, rising malnutrition, and increased criminal activity as families struggle to survive. While national and international relief efforts are underway, experts warn these measures are short term fixes for what is likely to be a recurring climate challenge. Global warming is expected to raise average temperatures in the Horn of Africa by up to three degrees Celsius this century. Rainfall may increase during short rainy seasons but remain unreliable in the long rainy season critical for replenishing water and pasture. Extreme weather events — from droughts to floods — will become more frequent, placing additional strain on fragile ecosystems and rural economies. Key trends complicating Somalia’s environmental response include rapid urbanisation, declining traditional environmental knowledge, decentralised governance, tensions over shared river waters with Ethiopia, and mass displacement.Addressing these threats requires more than technical solutions. Somalia must adopt a unified environmental strategy, strengthen cooperation across regions and borders, and promote environmental education to protect livelihoods and ensure long term resilience against climate change.
Somalia is enduring one of its harshest droughts in decades, devastating rural livelihoods through massive livestock losses, crop failures, and forced displacement. The crisis has triggered child marriages, rising malnutrition, and increased criminal activity as families struggle to survive. While national and international relief efforts are underway, experts warn these measures are short term fixes for what is likely to be a recurring climate challenge. Global warming is expected to raise average temperatures in the Horn of Africa by up to three degrees Celsius this century. Rainfall may increase during short rainy seasons but remain unreliable in the long rainy season critical for replenishing water and pasture. Extreme weather events — from droughts to floods — will become more frequent, placing additional strain on fragile ecosystems and rural economies. Key trends complicating Somalia’s environmental response include rapid urbanisation, declining traditional environmental knowledge, decentralised governance, tensions over shared river waters with Ethiopia, and mass displacement.
Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have sharply deteriorated since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took office. His government is seen as leaning closer to Kenya, a perception reinforced by reopening the Kenyan khat trade which ended Ethiopia’s monopoly. Tensions escalated after a major Al Shabaab incursion into Ethiopia, prompting Addis Ababa to deploy thousands of troops into Somalia and propose a controversial buffer zone. Ethiopia has also bypassed Mogadishu by striking direct security deals with Somali Federal Member States and Somaliland, challenging Somali sovereignty. An equally serious but often overlooked dispute involves water. Ethiopia’s ambitious irrigation and hydropower projects in the highlands have diverted large volumes from the Juba and Shabelle rivers, which supply Somalia’s breadbasket regions. With 90 percent of their flow originating in Ethiopia, these rivers are critical for irrigation and food security, especially during Somalia’s worst drought in decades. March saw the Juba River nearly dry for the first time since 1957. Without treaties governing shared water resources, Somalia lacks leverage to address upstream diversions. Many Somalis believe Ethiopia has exploited Somalia’s political fragility since 1991 to act unilaterally. With no resolution in sight, worsening political friction risks further destabilising the Horn of Africa.
Somalia is currently experiencing the worst drought in a generation. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s (HSM) foremost priorities seem to be the drought and the return of the missing soldiers from Eritrea
In early 2022, Somalia entered a deepening crisis fueled by multiple shocks: a fourth consecutive below average rainy season, the Ukraine war’s disruption of food and fuel supplies, and ongoing political paralysis. The Gu rains, vital for 75% of Somalia’s annual rainfall, are delayed and forecasts predict significant deficits, threatening agriculture and pastoral livelihoods. Already, 4.9 million people are affected, 719,000 displaced, and 1.4 million children face acute malnutrition. Somalia’s dependence on wheat imports from Ukraine over 90% compounds the crisis as global grain supplies tighten and prices soar. The UN warns famine could hit parts of southern and central Somalia if rains fail, prices rise further, and humanitarian aid remains inadequate. Despite the looming catastrophe, Somalia’s political elite remain consumed by protracted elections, diverting attention from emergency response. The 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan seeks $1.5 billion, but only 4.4% is funded. Experts urge a unified, state-led drought response to galvanize donor support and avert a repeat of the 2011 famine that killed 260,000 people.