In December 2023, the final elements of the UN Security Council sanctions regime were lifted on the Somali federal government. Mogadishu's celebrations were rapturous, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declaring that Mogadishu could now "purchase any weapons needed" and that "friendly nations and allies" could hand over the "necessary weapons without any limitations or restrictions." After years of lobbying, the final albatross around the neck of the federal government was to be lifted, and the Somali National Army (SNA) handed the heavy firepower required to conquer Al-Shabaab once and for all. Of course, over 18 months on, quite the reverse has happened, with Al-Shabaab having swept across much of central Somalia since February-- despite the glut of Egyptian and Turkish weapons donated to Villa Somalia in the past year. And Puntland's seizure of the MV Sea World, a Comorian-flagged vessel carrying Turkish arms and armoured vehicles last week, has thrown the question of the lifting of the arms embargo back into the open.
On 12 March, the UN Security Council extended AMISOM’s mandate until 31 December 2021, though Niger, Tunisia, and Kenya expressed frustration over being insufficiently consulted. These objections reflect broader tensions between the UN and the African Union regarding decision-making on Somalia. While AMISOM has secured most major towns in southern Somalia, its political leadership, particularly Ambassador Francisco Madeira, has faced criticism for enabling Villa Somalia’s authoritarian practices and advancing a flawed electoral agenda. Opposition leaders have increasingly questioned AMISOM’s credibility as a neutral political actor. The African Union’s inability to coordinate effectively with troop-contributing countries (TCCs) and international stakeholders has left Somalia vulnerable amid ongoing political and security tensions. Newly appointed AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security, Amb Bankole Adeoye, faces a critical task: appoint a high-level Special Envoy to re-engage Somalia’s partners and implement a course correction for AMISOM’s civilian leadership. Once a new federal government is in office, Adeoye will have the opportunity to replace the current leadership with a competent team capable of overseeing a smooth security transition by 2023. Effective AU engagement is vital to stabilizing Somalia, supporting democratic processes, and ensuring AMISOM fulfills both its military and political mandates.