President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returns to power in a vastly different Somalia from the one he governed in 2012–2017. Domestically, the new administration must navigate tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its Federal Member States (FMSs), healing divides caused by the previous Farmaajo regime. Hassan Sheikh is expected to revive inclusive dialogue and foster cooperation, particularly with estranged states like Jubaland and Puntland. Internationally, the landscape has also shifted. Relations with Kenya are strained, Ethiopia is focused inward due to conflict, and the controversial Tripartite Alliance with Ethiopia and Eritrea is losing momentum. The president is likely to distance Somalia from Eritrea and Qatar while seeking balanced ties with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Security remains a critical concern. The resurgence of Al-Shabaab, the collapse of past coordination, and the politicisation of forces under Farmaajo have weakened progress. Hassan Sheikh’s leadership is anticipated to return focus to unified counter-terrorism strategies with renewed international support.
The election defeat of former Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo marks the end of a turbulent era defined by hypernationalism and divisive populism. His Nabad iyo Nolol (N&N) movement fused ultranationalist rhetoric, conservative religiosity, and authoritarian politics, reshaping Somalia’s political landscape. Drawing inspiration from Trump-style populism, Farmaajo and his allies weaponised nationalism, framing themselves as the sole defenders of Somali identity while labelling opponents as traitors. This ideology tapped into Pan-Somali sentiments, inflaming tensions with Kenya, straining regional relations, and deepening internal divisions. N&N also found ideological allies in the conservative Salafi movement Al-I’tisaam, reinforcing a rigid, intolerant worldview. Even with Farmaajo out of office, the movement’s influence persists with a substantial bloc in parliament still loyal to his ideas.
Somalia’s political landscape shifted dramatically as Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur (Adan Madoobe) secured the Lower House speakership with 163 votes, defeating Farmaajo-backed Hassan Abdinoor. Madoobe’s win, alongside Abdi Hashi Abdullahi’s re-election as Upper House speaker, signals waning influence for Farmaajo’s Nabad iyo Nolol party. The elections also made history with Saadia Yasin Haji Samatar becoming Somalia’s first female deputy speaker. The Farmaajo camp’s attempts to disrupt the process, including blocking MPs from entering the venue and even trying to sabotage air conditioning, failed to prevent the opposition’s victories. In a decisive move, Speaker Madoobe asserted authority over security forces until a new president is elected, warning commanders against political interference. This comes amid reports of ongoing efforts by Villa Somalia to exploit disputed Gedo elections to delay the process.
The legal challenge by former Somali intelligence chief and National Security Adviser Fahad Yasin to regain his parliamentary seat has become a defining moment in Somalia’s turbulent political scene. After the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) removed his name over allegations of fraud and manipulation, Yasin has turned to the Supreme Court, despite it having no jurisdiction over electoral disputes. His move reflects a sharp decline in his political dominance, as both acting Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and the FEIT remain firm in rejecting any reversal. The case underscores the broader struggle between President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s camp and opposition forces, particularly over the contested Gedo seats. Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe has rejected Farmaajo’s proposals to split these seats, promising free and fair elections instead. Meanwhile, tensions remain high over the expulsion of African Union envoy Francisco Madeira, with political temperatures rising in Mogadishu.
Amid a worsening political crisis, Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo visited Qatar to meet Emir Hammad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, officially to seek drought aid. However, the timing suggests deeper political motives. While Farmaajo projected stability on the international stage, Somalia’s fragile electoral process was collapsing at home. The Council of Presidential Candidates denounced the polls as fraudulent and threatened a boycott. Qatar’s influence in Somalia has grown significantly, with Doha shaping domestic and foreign policy, managing political alliances, and providing financial backing to favored candidates. Once thought to be distancing itself from Somalia, Qatar has renewed support for Farmaajo and his ally Fahad Yasin, fueling speculation that former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire may serve as an alternative “Plan B” for Doha. Analysts believe Qatar’s long-term goal may be to integrate Al-Shabaab into the political system, a move that could be seen as capitulation if pursued amid electoral fraud and political unrest. Farmaajo’s Doha trip underscores the interplay between external influence and internal instability, raising concerns that Somalia’s governance may be increasingly determined by foreign agendas rather than domestic consensus.
In late November 2021, Puntland’s bustling port city of Boosaaso became the stage for a dramatic political and security standoff. The Puntland Security Force (PSF), an elite U.S.-trained counterterrorism unit, turned its loyalty away from President Sa’iid Abdillahi Deni after he abruptly replaced its long-serving Director General, General Mohamud Osman Diyaano, with a controversial appointee. This decision not only alienated the PSF’s Osman Mohamud clan base but also jeopardized its funding, base, and operational cohesion. The PSF crisis highlights the intricate interplay of clan politics, leadership missteps, and external influences in Puntland’s security landscape. With U.S. support withdrawn and no sustainable funding in place, the unit’s future is uncertain. Integrating it into the UAE-backed Puntland Maritime Police Force could further inflame clan tensions, while disbanding it risks leaving a dangerous security vacuum. Politically, the fallout has severely damaged Deni’s reputation, eroding trust even within his core clan constituency and casting doubt on his federal presidential ambitions. If mishandled, the crisis could offer an opening for Villa Somalia, Qatari funding, and Islamist factions to expand influence in Puntland turning the PSF from a counterterrorism asset into a political liability.
Former Al-Shabaab commander Mukhtar Robow “Abu Mansur” has broken his silence in an interview with VOA Somali journalist Harun Maruf, speaking about his political ambitions and the harsh conditions of his detention since 2018. Despite being held without formal charges and denied outside contact, Robow remains committed to his goal of serving the Somali people. His arrest, carried out with Ethiopian troop assistance, sparked deadly protests in Baidoa and international condemnation. Critics argue that his case exemplifies Somalia’s selective and opaque approach to militant rehabilitation, where political motives outweigh genuine reintegration efforts. Robow’s strong clan backing and pragmatic Salafi stance make him a unique figure compared to other detained jihadists, such as Hassan Dahir Aweys. His attempted run for president of South West State in 2018 was blocked by the federal government, allegedly to prevent him from becoming a threat to both Mogadishu and Al-Shabaab’s ideological narrative. Somalia’s rehabilitation programme, known as “Serendi,” has been widely criticised as ineffective, serving intelligence purposes more than true de-radicalisation. Robow’s reappearance raises questions about his political future and whether the government will genuinely engage him or continue using him as a pawn in Somalia’s complex political game.
The sudden reconciliation between Somalia’s caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble and outgoing President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo surprised many, sparking optimism for easing political tensions in Mogadishu. Mediated by South West State president Laftagareen, the deal promised cooperation on the electoral process and handling the Ikraan Tahliil case through the courts. However, the agreement lacks a written framework, relying instead on vague public statements. Critics argue it serves as a political tactic, allowing Farmaajo and his ally Fahad Yasin to regain influence. Laftagareen’s close ties to Villa Somalia raise doubts about his neutrality as mediator. The arrangement could weaken Roble’s position, potentially sidelining him in critical election decisions. The deal also risks burying the Ikraan Tahliil case, as Somalia’s judiciary is widely viewed as partisan and ineffective. Some observers speculate a third-party candidate, such as former Galmudug president Abdikarim Guled, may benefit from this détente, with Qatar possibly playing a behind-the-scenes role. While the agreement appears to promise stability, political analysts warn it could unravel quickly. The coming days may reveal whether this is genuine progress or merely another strategic manoeuvre in Somalia’s turbulent power struggles.
Since the collapse of Somalia’s central government in 1991, traditional clan elders have been pivotal actors in Somali politics, holding deep-rooted legitimacy as representatives and custodians of their clans. These leaders have historically mediated disputes, maintained social order, and played vital roles in peacebuilding most notably in Somaliland’s post-war reconciliation and governance. However, in the current political climate, their credibility faces unprecedented threats from corrupt politicians, business interests, extremist groups, and foreign interference. Somalia’s reliance on the 4.5 clan power-sharing formula and indirect elections has, in many cases, incentivized the sale of parliamentary seats to the highest bidder, undermining merit-based leadership. The longer Somalia delays transitioning to a universal suffrage “one person, one vote” system, the greater the risk that clan elders will become entrenched in corrupt political practices. While Somaliland offers lessons in integrating traditional elders into governance, Somalia’s system requires safeguards to protect their integrity and limit undue political influence. Failure to act risks eroding one of the country’s oldest and most trusted social institutions, with consequences for national unity and stability. The next administration must prioritize building an inclusive, democratic, multi-party framework to preserve both governance and cultural legitimacy.
Ikraan Tahlil, a young and dedicated NISA officer, vanished on 26 June 2021, triggering a chain of political events that would plunge Somalia into crisis. Known for her work liaising between NISA and the Banadir Regional Authority, Ikraan’s disappearance was followed by conflicting reports, with the government initially claiming she was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab an allegation swiftly denied by both her family and the group itself. As public outrage mounted, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble demanded a transparent investigation, clashing with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and then NISA director Fahad Yasin. Roble’s dismissal of Fahad deepened the standoff, with Farmaajo countering by appointing his own loyalists to key security positions. Ikraan’s family pursued legal action against senior NISA officials, further inflaming tensions. The political rift has since evolved into a constitutional crisis, with the threat of a no-confidence motion against Roble and potential violence looming.
Somalia’s political tensions have escalated following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial decision to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of NISA agent Ikraan Tahliil. The killing, believed to be politically motivated, has become a flashpoint in the ongoing power struggle with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue the move undermines transparency by placing the investigation under executive control, potentially shielding key figures such as former NISA chief Fahad Yasin. Farmaajo’s attempts to retain loyalists and his resistance to Fahad’s dismissal have backfired, enabling Roble to consolidate power and public support. The loss of Fahad long regarded as Farmaajo’s key political strategist and foreign funding link has weakened the president’s re-election prospects. Meanwhile, speculation grows over potential parliamentary maneuvers, including a no-confidence motion against Roble, that could trigger a constitutional crisis.
Somalia’s fragile political stability faces renewed turbulence following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial move to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) agent Ikraan Tahliil. The case, widely believed to be politically motivated, has shaken public trust and intensified the power struggle between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue that shifting the investigation back under the executive branch will compromise transparency and shield high-level figures, including former NISA chief Fahad Yasin, from accountability. Farmaajo’s resistance to Fahad’s dismissal and subsequent attempts to install loyalists have been met with firm opposition from Roble, who has gained significant political ground. Fahad’s removal is a major blow to Farmaajo’s re-election prospects, as it disrupts his financial and strategic support network from foreign allies such as Qatar and Turkey.
Mogadishu is gripped by escalating political turmoil as the power struggle between Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo intensifies. The Federal Government is effectively split, with both leaders pulling in opposite directions. This division threatens the upcoming elections, risks triggering violence, and has drawn concern from regional capitals. The latest flashpoint came when PM Roble dismissed Hassan Hundubey Jimale, a key Farmaajo ally, as Minister of Internal Security, replacing him with Abdullahi Mohammed Nur. Farmaajo rejected the appointment as illegal, while the Speaker of the Lower House, another Farmaajo supporter, questioned its legitimacy. Behind the scenes, speculation grows about a possible no-confidence motion against Roble. The roots of this crisis trace back to February 2021, when Farmaajo’s term expired but he retained significant powers, setting up an unworkable division of authority over security and elections. The Ikraan Tahlil case allowed Roble to weaken Farmaajo’s grip, rallying public support and gaining key security backers.
Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has emerged stronger in Somalia’s ongoing power struggle with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. This week’s dramatic events in Mogadishu, centered on the leadership of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), revealed a decisive shift in the balance of power. Farmaajo deployed Eritrean-trained Duufaan forces to secure NISA headquarters for his appointee, Yasin Farey, but two NISA-affiliated units defected, siding with Roble’s choice, General Bashir Goobe. This move is expected to result in Gen Goobe’s installation as temporary NISA Director General. Farmaajo’s influence has sharply declined, limited to a small coalition of MPs and regional allies. His position has been further undermined by the Ikraan Tahlil murder case, in which the victim’s family has filed charges against senior security figures, including Farmaajo’s close ally, Fahad Yasin. With public and opposition support rallying behind Roble, Fahad’s political future is in doubt.