A powerful caucus of Hawiye clan chiefs is conducting discreet talks with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu to defuse Somalia’s worsening political crisis, aggravated in recent weeks by the ongoing Al-Shabaab offensive in the Shabelle Valley and the attempted encirclement of the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The initiative is still in its infancy, the details still somewhat hazy, and there is no guarantee it will succeed, but it does certainly offer a realistic prospect of ending the escalating divisions and political stalemate in Somalia.
Somalia’s political landscape is facing a dramatic shift as around 400 clan leaders from the Hawiye clan issued a historic declaration rejecting President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year extension. The Pan Hawiye congress in Mogadishu marked a seminal moment, calling for annulment of the extension, depoliticisation of military and security forces, and a return to the 17 September accord. This unprecedented cohesion among Hawiye sub-clans signals growing challenges for Villa Somalia and renders Farmaajo’s extended term increasingly untenable. Traditionally divided between Habar Gedir and Mudulood factions, the Hawiye have been manipulated by Farmaajo through Senate seat allocations and key appointments to undercut opposition support. Now, the clans are uniting, mobilizing militias, and establishing defensive positions across Mogadishu, effectively reshaping the city into sub-clan enclaves reminiscent of past conflicts. Military tensions in the capital are rising, and even Farmaajo’s closest aides recognize the risk posed by his intransigence. With opposition consolidation and armed preparedness gaining momentum, Villa Somalia faces an unprecedented threat to its authority. Analysts suggest that Farmaajo’s continued defiance could provoke large-scale confrontations, making it clear that political survival without compromise is increasingly unlikely. The Hawiye’s decisive stance may well determine the next phase of Somalia’s political transition and the stability of its capital.