Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's attempts to mimic his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, continue to fragment the country. In late 2019 and early 2020, the disruptive president and his spy chief, Fahad Yasin, deployed hundreds of federal troops and National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) operatives to the Gedo region of Jubaland, having been unable to dislodge regional President Ahmed Madoobe from Kimsaayo after his re-election in August 2019. Alongside security forces, cash was poured in to leverage the Mareehaan-dominated districts of Luuq, Dollow, Beled Hawo, Garbaharey and Bardheere away from Madoobe's Ogaadeen-majority administration. Sporadic deadly violence erupted between federal and regional troops as Al-Shabaab expanded and consolidated its presence in Gedo, which has not diminished since.
Somalia reached a pivotal milestone as its 11th parliament was sworn in on April 14, with 255 members taking their oath in Mogadishu. This development signifies a major step forward in the protracted electoral process, paving the way for speaker elections later in April and a potential presidential election in early May. Yet, the road ahead remains turbulent. Twenty seats are still under dispute, including 16 in Gedo, where elections are now planned for Elwaq instead of Garbahaarey, frustrating the Farmaajo camp. Fahad Yasin, a key figure in Somalia’s intelligence apparatus, is contesting legal challenges to his parliamentary bid, and the Supreme Court is now involved. Parliament's first session was marred by disruption, led by NISA-linked MPs mobilized by Fahad’s ally, Abdullahi Kulane ‘Jiis’. Their protests reflect mounting anxiety as opposition groups push to conclude the election before disputed seats are resolved.
Somalia’s upcoming political transition faces unprecedented risks as Fahad Yasin, former NISA chief and master political strategist, enters parliament. Known for his vast financial resources and unmatched ability to influence elections, Fahad is now positioned to manipulate the presidential race from within. The next Somali parliament is shaping up to be an auction house, where money, not merit, determines outcomes. With only 60% of Lower House seats filled and key constituencies like Garbahaarey deadlocked, the election process is mired in delays, manipulation, and clan grievances. Four scenarios dominate: further breakdowns in the electoral process; a controversial Farmaajo re-election requiring massive manipulation; Fahad backing a new candidate like Abdulkarim Guled, Hassan Ali Khaire, or Dahir Mohamud Gelle; or the opposition uniting behind a single figure such as Sheikh Sharif, Abdirahman Abdishakur, or Hassan Sheikh.