Somalia stands at a critical crossroads as caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble convenes the National Consultative Forum with the Federal Government, Federal Member States (FMSs), and the Banadir Regional Administration. The agenda focuses on finalizing preparations for the House of the People elections, electoral funding, and resolving deep-seated disputes that threaten the democratic process. Allegations of widespread corruption, bias in candidate selection, and manipulation by both FGS and FMS leaders have cast serious doubt on the legitimacy of the upcoming vote. Key issues, such as the unresolved Somaliland and Gedo disputes, have further fueled political instability. Meanwhile, reports of clan militarization in Galmudug and HirShabelle raise fears of escalating violence, displacement, and humanitarian crises. The shadow of Afghanistan’s collapse looms large, emboldening extremist groups like Al-Shabaab as Somalia’s political class remains entangled in election disputes. Without transparency, accountability, and an inclusive roadmap, donor confidence may erode, jeopardizing both funding and international support. PM Roble must act decisively setting clear milestones, ensuring impartiality, and fostering dialogue between Mogadishu and regional states. Commitment to federalism, security sector reform, and constitutional review will be essential to prevent Somalia from slipping into further turmoil.
As Somalia’s delayed elections drag on, the country faces an uncertain future. The upcoming presidential vote will determine who inherits a divided nation, fragile institutions, and mounting crises. The new leader’s challenges will be immense from addressing a deepening drought and stalled economy to confronting a resurgent Al‑Shabaab and managing the transition from AMISOM to ATMIS. Urgent institutional reforms remain neglected, while looming Federal Member State elections threaten further instability. The IMF has warned it will suspend financial support if elections are not concluded by May 17, a move that could paralyze government operations reliant on international aid. Security sector reform is critical, yet existing frameworks such as the National Security Architecture and New Policing Model have been ignored.
This week marks one year since outgoing Somali President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo seized an illegal extension of power, defying the constitution and halting the relatively peaceful electoral transitions Somalia had maintained since 2000. His tenure, especially this past year, has been marked by political paralysis, deepening divisions, and dangerous instability. Farmaajo’s rift with Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble fractured the federal government, leaving many regions vulnerable to Al-Shabaab’s resurgence. The jihadist group now operates a shadow government more effective than the Federal Government of Somalia, taxing, providing services, and building loyalty even in nominally government-held areas. Somalia’s foreign policy has become erratic, dialogue with Somaliland is stalled, and the overdue electoral process is mired in irregularities and fraud. Known for his reclusive style, Farmaajo avoids media engagement, often communicating through cryptic Facebook posts that heighten political uncertainty. His social and political missteps such as his cold behavior at a state funeral have raised concerns about his temperament and fitness for leadership. Farmaajo’s presidency, once billed as a strongman’s bid to restore Somali unity, has instead delivered heightened instability, failed governance, and a leadership crisis that threatens the country’s fragile political fabric.
Somalia is facing one of its most serious political crises in recent years, triggered by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s suspension of Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. The suspension, announced in December 2021, has deepened tensions between the executive branches, sparking fears of renewed instability in a country already battling insecurity, economic challenges, and humanitarian crises. Farmaajo accuses Roble of corruption and misuse of public land, while Roble calls the suspension an unconstitutional move aimed at derailing the long-delayed elections. The political standoff has polarized Somali society, with both leaders rallying military and political support. This power struggle comes at a critical moment when Somalia is struggling to complete its parliamentary elections, fight Al-Shabaab insurgency, and maintain fragile unity among its federal states. Analysts warn that the dispute could derail electoral timelines, weaken governance, and heighten the risk of violence. The African Union, United Nations, and international partners have urged both sides to resolve their differences peacefully and prioritize national stability. As the crisis unfolds, Somalia stands at a crossroads between fragile progress and a dangerous slide back into political chaos, with the fate of its democratic process hanging in the balance.
Somalia’s political scene stands at a tense crossroads, shaped by President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” Mohamed’s bold maneuvers and the delicate dance of international diplomacy. Over recent years, the administration has engaged in tactical electoral manipulation, strategic alliances, and calculated resistance to foreign pressure, challenging both domestic opponents and Western envoys. Efforts by international partners to broker dialogue have repeatedly clashed with Villa Somalia’s insistence on controlling the political narrative, creating a stalemate that risks deepening instability. The tensions reflect a broader struggle over Somalia’s political future — a contest between the vision of a centralized authority and calls for inclusive governance. Meanwhile, missed peace opportunities and the erosion of trust between stakeholders have left the country vulnerable to renewed conflict. As Western diplomats attempt to mediate, the stakes remain high: the fragile progress Somalia has made could be undone if political fragmentation intensifies. This is not simply a story of internal politics but a test of whether Somalia’s leadership and international partners can align for sustainable stability. The coming months will determine if dialogue can prevail over division, or if Somalia will be drawn deeper into a cycle of political brinkmanship.
Somalia is facing one of its most critical moments in recent years, with political tensions and security challenges converging into a volatile mix. Two years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and coercion by Villa Somalia have left the country’s political process in disarray, undermining public trust and creating a deep legitimacy crisis. Opposition factions remain highly dissatisfied, fueling the risk of parallel processes and further fragmentation. Compounding the political turmoil, Ethiopia has announced a significant redeployment of its troops from southern Somalia, abandoning key forward operating bases in regions like Gedo and South West State. This unexpected military shift will reshape the security landscape in the sensitive tri-border area between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. The move could embolden militant groups, weaken local security forces, and strain regional counterterrorism efforts. As electoral disputes escalate and military dynamics shift, Somalia faces an uncertain future. Without urgent political compromise, credible elections, and coordinated security strategies, the country risks sliding into deeper instability. This situation has far-reaching implications, not only for Somalia’s internal stability but also for the broader Horn of Africa region.
Somalia stands at a critical crossroads, grappling with deep political instability and mounting security threats. Over the past two years, Villa Somalia’s manipulation of the electoral process through bribery, coercion, and co-optation has undermined public trust, leading to a fraudulent and disorganized outcome that risks plunging the country into renewed conflict. The opposition’s rejection of the process raises the specter of political fragmentation, with the potential for rival administrations to emerge. Security dynamics are equally precarious. Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy troops from southern Somalia, abandoning key Forward Operating Bases in Gedo and South West State, leaves the tri-border area between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia exposed to heightened militant activity, particularly from Al-Shabaab. The shift to mobile military units may weaken counter-insurgency capabilities and embolden extremist operations. Amid these challenges, Somalia faces a narrowing window to restore stability. The convergence of political discord, weakening security infrastructure, and external military recalibrations threatens to reverse hard-won gains. Without urgent reforms, inclusive dialogue, and coordinated regional security strategies, the country risks sliding into deeper crisis jeopardizing not only Somalia’s future but also the stability of the wider Horn of Africa.
Somalia is at a critical crossroads as two years of electoral manipulation, bribery, coercion, and political co-optation by Villa Somalia have eroded the integrity of the country’s democratic process. The manipulated elections lack popular support, resulting in widespread disillusionment and deepening mistrust in governance. The country faces a growing risk of political fragmentation, with Villa Somalia potentially pursuing a parallel, illegitimate process while the opposition prepares counter-strategies. This instability is compounded by external pressures, such as Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy its forces from parts of southern Somalia, leaving security vacuums in strategic areas. The withdrawal raises concerns about increased militant activity in the tri-border region between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. With national cohesion weakening, political tensions escalating, and security deteriorating, Somalia risks sliding back into deeper conflict. The situation demands urgent political compromise, credible electoral reforms, and inclusive dialogue among stakeholders to prevent further destabilization. Without decisive action, Somalia’s fragile state could face another protracted crisis with dire consequences for its people and the broader Horn of Africa.
Somalia’s long-overdue parliamentary elections, initially planned for 2020 as a one-person, one-vote process, have devolved into a drawn-out and opaque indirect voting system. The Federal Implementation Electoral Team (FEIT), tasked with overseeing the process, has struggled to deliver even this reduced model, leading to piecemeal seat-by-seat voting vulnerable to manipulation. Political interference from Villa Somalia, disputes over elector selection, and rivalries between Federal Member States (FMS) have further complicated proceedings. FMS leaders, including those from Puntland and Jubaland, are leveraging the process to secure loyal MPs, while Villa Somalia benefits from financial backing and influence over key voting blocs such as the Somaliland caucus and Banaadiri seats. The opposition Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) remains excluded from negotiations and has threatened force if the process undermines their interests, raising fears of renewed unrest in Mogadishu. Efforts to reset the electoral timetable through the National Consultative Council (NCC) face resistance from both domestic actors and international donors. The United Nations and key partners, by insisting on upholding the flawed May 27 agreement, risk entrenching a process that lacks transparency, credibility, and inclusivity. Without urgent reforms, Somalia’s elections could deepen political instability rather than resolve it.
A recent mediation effort to resolve the bitter feud between Somalia’s outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has collapsed, worsening the country’s political instability. The talks, spearheaded by former Lower House Speaker Mohamed Mursal Abdirahman, Galmudug President Ahmed Qoor Qoor, and Education Minister Abdullahi Arab, sought to end the standoff that has stalled elections and threatened national security. Farmaajo reportedly demanded three conditions: removing the Ikraan Tahlil case from the military court, appointing his own picks for the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) director general, and the internal security minister role. Roble’s refusal ended the negotiations. Critics argue the mediators lacked credibility due to political biases and past controversies. Farmaajo’s history of refusing to step down and sidelining rivals has fueled fears he is exploiting the crisis to cling to power. His tenure has been marked by confrontations with federal state leaders, political intransigence, and failed compromise efforts.
On May 1st, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo formally withdrew his illegal claim to a two-year term extension, delegating responsibility for election management and security to acting Prime Minister Mohammed Roble while retaining control as Commander-in-Chief. While this move was a welcome concession, it falls short of the decisive action needed to resolve Somalia’s ongoing political and constitutional crisis. The security environment in Mogadishu remains fragmented, with irregular units under NISA command and limited oversight of opposition forces. International calls to “demilitarise” the capital are premature given the persistent risk posed by divided government forces. To consolidate momentum, Roble should immediately take three key steps: include both the federal government and National Salvation Forum in the planned FMS summit on 20 May, convene a Preparatory Committee of stakeholders to define the agenda and format, and address challenging issues such as NISA deployment and AU protection of opposition candidates collectively.
Somalia faces a critical political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo defies the Provisional Constitution, undermines federalism, and threatens the nation’s fragile democracy. International observers warn that Farmaajo’s unconstitutional actions, including the illegal extension of his mandate and consolidation of power, risk plunging Somalia back into civil war. The UN Security Council and African Union are urged to impose targeted sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, against Farmaajo, NISA Chief Fahad Yasin, Speaker Mohamed Mursal, and key regime officials. Sanctions under UN resolutions 1844(2008) and 2002(2011) could prevent further destabilization, curb financial misappropriation, and affirm international commitment to Somalia’s constitutional order. The African Union’s Malabo Protocol (2014) also supports decisive action against unconstitutional changes of government. Immediate measures would reinforce Somalia’s opposition forces, provide a peaceful path for political transition, and signal that violations of democracy and rule of law will not be tolerated. This is a pivotal moment for Somalia’s future, offering the international community an opportunity to prevent escalation, restore constitutional governance, and protect the Somali people from renewed conflict and instability.
Somalia is facing a deepening political crisis as former President Farmaajo attempts to extend his mandate, threatening the nation’s stability. Recent chaos in parliament, where pro-Farmaajo and opposition MPs clashed, underscores the risk of escalating conflict. Reports of NISA plainclothes teams being deployed further fuel fears of a forceful push to legitimize an illegal extension. Talks based on the 17 September electoral accord have run their course, revealing that Somalia’s political actors alone cannot achieve a consensus. Experts argue that a neutral multiparty mediation led by international partners is essential to break the deadlock. A proposed 4-point strategy includes: (1) immediate takeover by international partners to mediate, host, and manage elections, (2) a clear call to Villa Somalia to abandon the mandate extension plan, (3) recognition of Farmaajo as a candidate, not an interim leader, and (4) full transfer of executive powers to the Prime Minister or Speaker of Parliament. This approach aims to prevent further political fragmentation, safeguard democratic processes, and restore public trust. Without decisive international intervention, Somalia risks further instability, polarized governance, and erosion of constitutional order.