On May 15, 2022, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was re-elected as Somalia’s president in a historic landslide victory over outgoing leader Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. Securing 214 votes against Farmaajo’s 110, Mohamud became the first Somali leader to hold the presidency twice in non-consecutive terms. His win marks a significant political shift, ending Farmaajo’s controversial five-year rule marked by authoritarian tendencies, strained regional relations, and stalled federalism. The election also signals a potential reset in Somalia’s foreign policy, moving away from heavy Qatari influence and the divisive Tripartite Alliance with Ethiopia and Eritrea. Mohamud inherits a nation facing deep challenges, including the growing threat of Al-Shabaab, a fragmented security sector, and political polarisation. Despite these obstacles, his victory is seen as a chance to rebuild consensus politics, improve relations with neighbours such as Kenya, and restore Somalia’s path toward stability. The peaceful transfer of power is widely celebrated as a democratic success, offering hope for governance reforms, strengthened institutions, and renewed efforts in state-building. As Somalia looks ahead, the nation’s focus will be on security reforms, economic development, and fostering unity across its federal states.
Somalia's fragile democracy is under severe threat as outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and his ally Fahad Yasin attempt to disrupt the final stages of the electoral process. After Fahad Yasin was disqualified from the list of certified MPs, a wave of resistance erupted from the Farmaajo camp, leading to deep fractures within the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT). The dismissal of dissenting electoral officials by PM Roble has only intensified tensions. Fearing electoral defeat, Farmaajo and Fahad appear to be exploring desperate options including invoking security threats from Al-Shabaab as a pretext to halt the elections, declare a state of emergency, or impose martial law. With South West State President Laftagareen also suspending cooperation with the Prime Minister, political alliances are rapidly shifting. Analysts warn that Somalia may be inching toward another April 2021-style crisis.
Somalia’s outgoing president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, recently visited Qatar alongside political ally Fahad Yasin, sparking speculation over Doha’s role in Somalia’s upcoming elections. The trip, held just weeks before Somalia chooses its next leader, is seen as highly unusual in diplomatic practice particularly given Farmaajo’s contested legitimacy after overstaying his constitutional mandate. Analysts suggest the visit was more than symbolic, potentially signaling that Qatar fully supports Farmaajo and Fahad as its preferred candidates. Such endorsement could sway Somalia’s political elite, given Doha’s extensive financial influence in the country. A telling detail emerged when Farmaajo was photographed with a folder labeled “The Somali Republic,” omitting the federal designation hinting at his political ambition to dismantle federalism and restore a centralized state, a vision aligned with regional allies Ethiopia and Eritrea. While unverified reports suggest Washington may be pressuring Qatar to steer Farmaajo away from another term, many analysts believe Doha’s actions point to clientelist regime consolidation rather than leadership change. The visit underscores the complex interplay of foreign influence, Somali political maneuvering, and the high-stakes battle over the country’s governance structure. The outcome could significantly impact Somalia’s political stability and its fragile federal system.
As Somalia’s delayed elections drag on, the country faces an uncertain future. The upcoming presidential vote will determine who inherits a divided nation, fragile institutions, and mounting crises. The new leader’s challenges will be immense from addressing a deepening drought and stalled economy to confronting a resurgent Al‑Shabaab and managing the transition from AMISOM to ATMIS. Urgent institutional reforms remain neglected, while looming Federal Member State elections threaten further instability. The IMF has warned it will suspend financial support if elections are not concluded by May 17, a move that could paralyze government operations reliant on international aid. Security sector reform is critical, yet existing frameworks such as the National Security Architecture and New Policing Model have been ignored.
Somalia’s already discredited parliamentary elections in Galmudug took another dark turn as evidence emerged of a plot to block progressive politician Abdirahman Abdishakur from winning a seat, while paving the way for Abdullahi “Kulane” Jiis a close ally of outgoing President Farmaajo and Fahad Yasin. The scheme aimed to kill two birds with one stone: deny Abdishakur victory and secure parliamentary immunity for regime loyalists implicated in political assassinations and human rights abuses. The Federal Election Implementation Team (FEIT) attempted to position a female candidate, Naimo Hussein Ali, against Abdishakur to exploit the women’s quota and sideline him. Fortunately, Abdishakur won decisively. This strategy was part of a broader Farmaajo plan to move loyal security figures, such as Yasin Farey, acting NISA head and linked to the murder of agent Ikraan Tahliil, into parliamentary seats, shielding them from prosecution while using them to influence the presidential vote.