Somalia stands at a critical crossroads as caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble convenes the National Consultative Forum with the Federal Government, Federal Member States (FMSs), and the Banadir Regional Administration. The agenda focuses on finalizing preparations for the House of the People elections, electoral funding, and resolving deep-seated disputes that threaten the democratic process. Allegations of widespread corruption, bias in candidate selection, and manipulation by both FGS and FMS leaders have cast serious doubt on the legitimacy of the upcoming vote. Key issues, such as the unresolved Somaliland and Gedo disputes, have further fueled political instability. Meanwhile, reports of clan militarization in Galmudug and HirShabelle raise fears of escalating violence, displacement, and humanitarian crises. The shadow of Afghanistan’s collapse looms large, emboldening extremist groups like Al-Shabaab as Somalia’s political class remains entangled in election disputes. Without transparency, accountability, and an inclusive roadmap, donor confidence may erode, jeopardizing both funding and international support. PM Roble must act decisively setting clear milestones, ensuring impartiality, and fostering dialogue between Mogadishu and regional states. Commitment to federalism, security sector reform, and constitutional review will be essential to prevent Somalia from slipping into further turmoil.
After months of delays, Somalia’s indirect elections concluded with the swearing-in of the 11th Parliament on April 14. The process, marred by manipulation and backroom deals, delivered a legislature dominated by young, inexperienced members, with over 60% under 40 and far below the promised 30% quota for women. Many MPs owe their seats to political patrons like Federal Member State leaders and former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, rather than merit or competitive elections. A striking feature is the presence of at least 35 security officials, including active-duty National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) officers, raising concerns over parliamentary impartiality. The early sessions have already been chaotic, with MPs storming the podium, political boycotts, and even mortar attacks failing to halt proceedings.
Fahad Yasin, once the powerful National Security Advisor to President Farmaajo and the de facto head of Somalia’s NISA, has been dropped from the final list of MPs by the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT). Though a victory for many hoping to restore credibility in Somalia’s electoral process, fears remain that Fahad could still coerce his way back into parliament. His controversial nomination for the HoP#086 seat in Beledweyne faced rejection after clan leaders alleged the use of a fake elder to legitimize his candidacy. Fahad's history marked by allegations of links to Al-Shabaab, the manipulation of security forces, and targeted political violence makes his removal from parliament both a relief and a warning.
Somalia’s upcoming political transition faces unprecedented risks as Fahad Yasin, former NISA chief and master political strategist, enters parliament. Known for his vast financial resources and unmatched ability to influence elections, Fahad is now positioned to manipulate the presidential race from within. The next Somali parliament is shaping up to be an auction house, where money, not merit, determines outcomes. With only 60% of Lower House seats filled and key constituencies like Garbahaarey deadlocked, the election process is mired in delays, manipulation, and clan grievances. Four scenarios dominate: further breakdowns in the electoral process; a controversial Farmaajo re-election requiring massive manipulation; Fahad backing a new candidate like Abdulkarim Guled, Hassan Ali Khaire, or Dahir Mohamud Gelle; or the opposition uniting behind a single figure such as Sheikh Sharif, Abdirahman Abdishakur, or Hassan Sheikh.
Somalia is facing a dangerous political impasse after years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and coercion by Villa Somalia. The current process, widely seen as fraudulent and lacking legitimacy, risks collapsing entirely, with the opposition threatening to boycott and possibly launch a parallel election. Tensions in Mogadishu are rising as the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) explores forming a caretaker Sovereign or Salvation Council in January 2022, potentially including federal state presidents and parliamentary speakers to oversee credible elections. Advocates argue that such a council could end years of paralysis, improve decision-making, and deliver a fairer process. However, challenges include limited international appetite for a new arrangement and the risk of drawn-out negotiations. Many Somalis remain disillusioned after past caretaker experiments, particularly with Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble’s perceived failure.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has brought a refreshing change to Somalia’s political landscape, contrasting sharply with the tense environment under former President Farmaajo. Since assuming office, Roble has worked to resolve political uncertainty, secure consensus among stakeholders, and advance the federal election process. He has garnered public support by opposing Farmaajo’s controversial term extension, facilitating dialogue through the National Consultative Council, and upholding justice in the Ikraan Tahlil case, standing firm against influential figures. Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Roble must maintain the fragile consensus among federal member states and national institutions, focusing on completing the elections without delays. Limiting non-essential foreign trips and diplomatic engagements is crucial to avoid perceptions of campaigning. Above all, he must remain neutral, steering clear of favoritism or political endorsements, and address speculation about his own presidential ambitions.