Somalia’s 2021 electoral model, agreed on 27 May, was intended to improve legitimacy after the failure to implement one-person one-vote elections. However, the agreement has instead proven unworkable. Designed as a compromise between President Farmaajo’s camp and the opposition, the model expanded venues, increased electors, and added vaguely defined civil society participation changes critics say were crafted to favor Villa Somalia. Political tensions escalated when caretaker Prime Minister Roble asserted independence, clashing with Farmaajo over NISA leadership and investigations into the death of officer Ikraan Tahliil. Opposition gains in the Senate dimmed Farmaajo’s re-election hopes, prompting obstruction of the process. With elections far behind schedule, key venues insecure, and the Lower House procedure undefined, completing the cycle before year-end is unrealistic. The political impasse has frozen budget support, jeopardized debt relief, and eroded governance legitimacy. The only viable solution may be to abandon the 27 May accord and revert to the 2016-17 electoral model: 135 elders selecting electors, 51 electors per seat, and reduced venues. This familiar system could be implemented quickly, enabling a new government to take office within months provided Somalia’s leaders and international partners act decisively.
Somalia’s 2021 presidential election is scheduled for 10 October, amid concerns over rigging and political manipulation. Incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo overstayed his mandate, sparking opposition protests that nearly derailed the transition. Negotiations led by PM Roble established an indirect electoral model, but the process remains tightly controlled by Villa Somalia and NISA Director-General Fahad Yasin. Fahad wields significant influence, leveraging Qatari financial support and Al-I’tisaam networks to shape both the legislature and presidential outcome. He must decide whether to support Farmaajo, a loyal but damaged incumbent, a pliable alternative, or an independent candidate with whom he could strike a “grand bargain.” To maximize control, Fahad is orchestrating electoral manipulation, including replacing independent clan elders and influencing MPs across Somalia’s Federal Member States.