Somalia’s most contentious presidential election in decades is set for 15 May 2022, with 39 cleared candidates vying for the top seat. This high-stakes race comes after years of political turmoil under President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s administration. Despite the $40,000 registration fee deterring unserious contenders, reports indicate rampant vote-buying, with a single MP’s vote fetching between $40,000 and $300,000. Farmaajo’s camp, allegedly backed by Qatari funds, is spending heavily but faces strong opposition determined to block his re-election. The frontrunners former presidents Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud—are neck-and-neck, with Puntland’s Sa’id Abdullahi Deni still a factor. Meanwhile, former PM Hassan Ali Kheyre’s credibility has been damaged by suspected ties to Farmaajo’s inner circle.
Somalia’s upcoming political transition faces unprecedented risks as Fahad Yasin, former NISA chief and master political strategist, enters parliament. Known for his vast financial resources and unmatched ability to influence elections, Fahad is now positioned to manipulate the presidential race from within. The next Somali parliament is shaping up to be an auction house, where money, not merit, determines outcomes. With only 60% of Lower House seats filled and key constituencies like Garbahaarey deadlocked, the election process is mired in delays, manipulation, and clan grievances. Four scenarios dominate: further breakdowns in the electoral process; a controversial Farmaajo re-election requiring massive manipulation; Fahad backing a new candidate like Abdulkarim Guled, Hassan Ali Khaire, or Dahir Mohamud Gelle; or the opposition uniting behind a single figure such as Sheikh Sharif, Abdirahman Abdishakur, or Hassan Sheikh.