At the end of November, the residents of Mogadishu will be able to supposedly participate in their first direct elections since the late 1960s. Though having repeatedly postponed the polls, the handpicked Independent National Electoral and Boundaries Commission (INEBC) has set the date of the district council elections for 30 November, asserting that close to a million people have registered in the capital for the grand event. And yet, as ever, with the Hawiye-dominated politics of Mogadishu still so frayed and the polls considered a flimsy attempt to foreground a term extension for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the exercise in direct democracy is hardly laudable.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) stands at a defining crossroads, for his leadership, his legacy, and Somalia’s fragile democratic future. Alarming signs point to a deliberate strategy to extend his mandate beyond constitutional limits. Villa Somalia has reportedly circulated the so-called “Zero Paper” among Somali political circles and international partners to test the waters and gauge reaction. The proposal, titled “Somalia’s Exceptional Reform Window: A Mandate to Complete the Constitution and Reset Governance,” calls for a two-year extension under the pretext of completing the constitution and finalizing reforms.
Mohamed Hussein Roble, once a quiet technocrat and environmental engineer, emerged as an unlikely but pivotal figure in Somalia’s recent political history. Appointed as a supposedly docile Prime Minister in 2020 by President Farmaajo’s Nabad iyo Nolol party, Roble surprised many by standing up for constitutional order during Somalia’s 2021 electoral crisis. When parliament controversially extended Farmaajo’s mandate by two years, Roble refused to go along, instead mediating between opposition groups and federal leaders to restore the electoral process. Despite increasing tensions, sabotage efforts, and even an attempted ouster by Farmaajo, Roble remained steadfast. He convened and led the National Consultative Council and pushed through the long-delayed parliamentary elections. His firm stance and willingness to risk personal safety helped avert civil war and set the stage for a peaceful transfer of power. Notably, Roble chose not to run for president himself, removing any doubts about his impartiality.
Somalia’s Lower House of Parliament remains at the center of the country’s deepening political crisis. Controversially extended in late 2020, it functions as a key driver of the stalemate that has paralyzed Somalia’s electoral and governance systems. Under the leadership of Speaker Mohammed Mursal, a close ally of President Farmaajo, the House has lost independence and credibility, becoming increasingly seen as an appendage of the Executive. The Parliament routinely violates the provisional constitution, flouts its own rules, and has facilitated Villa Somalia’s prolonged gerrymandering and electoral delays. The opposition fears that the House may be used to illegally extend Farmaajo’s stay in power, leveraging “business-as-usual” sessions to smuggle motions through. This concern is rooted in Mursal’s record of rapid and politically motivated decisions, including the 2020 ouster of former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire in under eight minutes. International partners have pressured Mursal to prevent any unconstitutional extension, yet Farmaajo continues to pursue his plan with Mursal’s support.