Somalia is facing a dangerous political impasse after years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and coercion by Villa Somalia. The current process, widely seen as fraudulent and lacking legitimacy, risks collapsing entirely, with the opposition threatening to boycott and possibly launch a parallel election. Tensions in Mogadishu are rising as the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) explores forming a caretaker Sovereign or Salvation Council in January 2022, potentially including federal state presidents and parliamentary speakers to oversee credible elections. Advocates argue that such a council could end years of paralysis, improve decision-making, and deliver a fairer process. However, challenges include limited international appetite for a new arrangement and the risk of drawn-out negotiations. Many Somalis remain disillusioned after past caretaker experiments, particularly with Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble’s perceived failure.
The sudden reconciliation between Somalia’s caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble and outgoing President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo surprised many, sparking optimism for easing political tensions in Mogadishu. Mediated by South West State president Laftagareen, the deal promised cooperation on the electoral process and handling the Ikraan Tahliil case through the courts. However, the agreement lacks a written framework, relying instead on vague public statements. Critics argue it serves as a political tactic, allowing Farmaajo and his ally Fahad Yasin to regain influence. Laftagareen’s close ties to Villa Somalia raise doubts about his neutrality as mediator. The arrangement could weaken Roble’s position, potentially sidelining him in critical election decisions. The deal also risks burying the Ikraan Tahliil case, as Somalia’s judiciary is widely viewed as partisan and ineffective. Some observers speculate a third-party candidate, such as former Galmudug president Abdikarim Guled, may benefit from this détente, with Qatar possibly playing a behind-the-scenes role. While the agreement appears to promise stability, political analysts warn it could unravel quickly. The coming days may reveal whether this is genuine progress or merely another strategic manoeuvre in Somalia’s turbulent power struggles.