Somalia faces a mounting political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted a hurried Kinshasa visit to request African Union mediation on the country’s stalled electoral process. Farmaajo portrayed his government as seeking a “Somali-led and Somali-owned” dialogue to restore trust and advance democratic governance, but the effort was curtailed to accommodate Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the National Salvation Forum, formally addressed the UN Security Council, denouncing Farmaajo’s two-year term extension as illegal and unconstitutional, warning it could unravel the nation’s fragile peace. On the ground in Mogadishu, opposition-aligned security forces have taken positions across nearly half of the city, including Abgaal, Hodan, Dayniile, and Barmuuda districts, heightening tensions. A recent assassination attempt by the new NISA militia “Duufaan,” reportedly trained in Eritrea, underscores the volatile security environment. Opposition leaders, including former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryare and General Mohamud Mohamed ‘Koronto,’ are consolidating forces to challenge Farmaajo’s grip, threatening Mogadishu’s stability. International partners face a critical decision: rely on Farmaajo’s diplomatic maneuvers or act decisively to prevent conflict. With tensions rising and armed opposition presence growing, it is clear that hope alone cannot stabilize Somalia’s capital, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures.
Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo traveled to Kinshasa for high-level talks with DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, chair of the African Union, following his controversial two-year term extension. The trip is both symbolic and strategic, projecting a sense of business-as-usual while signaling to regional and international actors that Farmaajo’s extension is a fait accompli. Reports indicate a possible Qatar-mediated deal offering recognition of the extension by Kenya in exchange for de-escalation over the maritime dispute. Qatar has been actively cultivating ties in Africa to protect its investments and broker solutions between Mogadishu and Nairobi. Recognition by Kenya could strengthen Farmaajo’s position against growing domestic and international pressure, while Tshisekedi might lobby other African states to follow suit. Recent maneuvers, including Abdirashid Janan’s return to Somalia, suggest Villa Somalia is consolidating support ahead of potential opposition challenges. However, Farmaajo’s shift toward negotiating with Kenya, despite his earlier resistance, underscores his political desperation and raises doubts about his ability to deliver on agreements. The Kinshasa visit highlights the complex geopolitics surrounding Somalia’s electoral crisis, illustrating the fragile calculations and regional dynamics that shape Farmaajo’s survival strategy.