China has appointed Xue Bing as Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, with one of his top challenges being Somaliland’s expanding relationship with Taiwan. This partnership, established in 2020 with reciprocal representative offices, has deepened through high-level visits and investment deals, including upcoming oil exploration projects. Beijing has repeatedly pressured Hargeisa to cut ties with Taipei, offering infrastructure aid and development packages in return. Somaliland, however, has resisted, emphasizing its sovereignty and determination to maintain foreign relations on its own terms. China’s lack of debt leverage over Somaliland limits its ability to coerce compliance, leaving Beijing with few options beyond economic or symbolic retaliation. Potential Chinese countermeasures could include supporting Puntland’s claims over disputed Sool and Sanaag regions or expanding fishing and mining activities in contested waters and territories. These moves would likely irritate Somaliland but are unlikely to sever its strategic bond with Taiwan. The dispute underscores shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, where smaller states like Somaliland can defy major powers, and where Taiwan’s outreach challenges China’s diplomatic dominance in the region.
The global balance of power is shifting toward a new era, the Age of Middle Powers. Rising states in the Middle East and Asia are increasingly projecting military and political influence far beyond their borders, reshaping geopolitics in regions like the Horn of Africa. Turkey’s deployment of combat drones to Ethiopia during the Tigray conflict demonstrated how advanced military capabilities, once limited to superpowers, are now accessible to more states. This “democratization” of high-tech warfare risks fueling arms races and destabilizing fragile regions.
The global balance of power is shifting toward a new era, the Age of Middle Powers. Rising states in the Middle East and Asia are increasingly projecting military and political influence far beyond their borders, reshaping geopolitics in regions like the Horn of Africa. Turkey’s deployment of combat drones to Ethiopia during the Tigray conflict demonstrated how advanced military capabilities, once limited to superpowers, are now accessible to more states.