Somalia is facing a dangerous political impasse after years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and coercion by Villa Somalia. The current process, widely seen as fraudulent and lacking legitimacy, risks collapsing entirely, with the opposition threatening to boycott and possibly launch a parallel election. Tensions in Mogadishu are rising as the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) explores forming a caretaker Sovereign or Salvation Council in January 2022, potentially including federal state presidents and parliamentary speakers to oversee credible elections. Advocates argue that such a council could end years of paralysis, improve decision-making, and deliver a fairer process. However, challenges include limited international appetite for a new arrangement and the risk of drawn-out negotiations. Many Somalis remain disillusioned after past caretaker experiments, particularly with Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble’s perceived failure.
The Horn of Africa’s short-lived Tripartite Alliance formed in 2018 by Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia has collapsed, leaving behind a legacy of failed ambitions and political missteps. Initially framed as a partnership to strengthen political, economic, and security ties, the alliance was, in reality, a covert plan to wage war against Ethiopia’s Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, influenced by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s centralist and anti-federalist vision, dismantled Ethiopia’s federal system, postponed elections, and cracked down on opposition. His miscalculations in Tigray have left Ethiopia in turmoil, with Tigrayan and Oromo forces advancing toward Addis Ababa. Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo followed a similar path undermining federalism, manipulating state elections, and using force to seize territory from political rivals. Backed by Tripartite Alliance military cooperation, including troops trained in Eritrea, Farmaajo sought to consolidate power and even proposed extending his term. With Abiy on the brink and Isaias retreating into Eritrea, Farmaajo now stands isolated. The collapse of the alliance raises urgent questions: will he adapt and avoid the same fate, or persist in the same authoritarian trajectory, risking political disaster?