Kenya–Somalia relations have long been influenced by a small but powerful group of Kenyan-Somali elites. While the broader Kenyan public remains largely disconnected from Somali politics, figures like Gen. Mahmoud Mohamed, Yusuf Hajji, and Aden Duale have historically played a central role in shaping Kenya’s policy toward Somalia. From the failed Azania buffer zone project to support for Ahmed Madoobe’s Ras Kamboni brigade, these maneuvers reveal how clan interests and personal networks often trump national strategies. The intervention in Somalia in 2011, catalyzed by kidnappings in Lamu and Dadaab, marked a turning point. Kenya’s military presence deepened, but diplomatic tensions intensified under Somalia’s President Farmaajo. His centralization efforts clashed with Kenya-backed Jubaland leaders, leading to severed diplomatic ties and border tensions.
Somalia has missed yet another deadline to complete its parliamentary elections, with no new timetable confirmed. As of March 15, only 225 of the required 275 MPs have been elected, and the persistent impasse in Gedo remains the most serious obstacle. Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble has hinted at continuing the process until all seats are filled but has avoided decisive action, especially on the Garbahaarey dispute between Villa Somalia and Jubaland. International frustration is mounting. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expanded visa restrictions on Somali politicians, though critics argue such measures have little impact since many already hold foreign passports. Calls are growing for a relocation of the Gedo vote, but Villa Somalia and Roble have rejected this proposal.