The meeting in Halane between President Farmaajo and regional leaders is unlikely to produce a lasting solution for Somalia’s stalled electoral process. Past agreements have consistently unraveled once international attention waned, exposing the fragility of pacts imposed under external pressure. Farmaajo’s actions over the last two years reveal that he does not seek a credible vote. His priority has been to buy time and consolidate power, aiming for a regime extension by any means necessary. Throughout his tenure, Farmaajo has emphasized the need for a “strong government” over democratic elections, signaling intentions to weaken Somalia’s federal system, sideline opposition, and establish autocratic control. International partners, in their short-term approach, risk legitimizing another unstable electoral pact that Villa Somalia will almost certainly ignore. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey’s growing influence undermines Western leverage, reducing the effectiveness of traditional diplomacy in Somalia. Opportunities to encourage a peaceful transition such as nudging Farmaajo to step down after 8 February or supporting the opposition led National Salvation Council were missed. Without a coordinated strategy that accounts for these realities, Somalia faces continued political instability. International actors must recalibrate their approach, focusing on long-term democratic reforms rather than temporary deals that entrench Farmaajo’s power.