Since its founding in 1998, Puntland has relied on indirect, clan-based presidential selection. Efforts by previous administrations to introduce universal suffrage failed, but they laid the groundwork for democratic reform. Building on this, President Sa’id Abdullahi Deni oversaw Puntland’s first one-person, one-vote elections in October 2021 — Somalia’s first democratic vote in over 50 years. The trial elections in Qardho, Eyl, and Ufeyn marked a milestone, with 37,578 voters participating. However, disputes over alleged vote-buying, irregularities, and the lack of a constitutional court exposed the fragility of Puntland’s new democratic structures. Resignations within the Transitional Puntland Electoral Commission (TPEC) and Deni’s prolonged focus on a failed bid for Somalia’s presidency further stalled progress. Now, with Deni’s term ending in January 2024, concerns are mounting over possible term extension, mirroring precedents in other Somali states. For Puntland to realize democratic elections statewide, it must amend its constitution, conduct a census, register voters in all districts, and rebuild trust through clear commitments to timely elections.
In Somalia, politics has long been shaped by Harold Lasswell’s principle of “who gets what, when, and how,” with clan-based asymmetries determining access to power and resources. Historically dominant pastoralist clans secure the lion’s share of jobs, aid, and opportunities, while marginalized agricultural communities like the Digil-Mirifle and Somali Bantu are often left behind. The consequences are stark: in past famines, most deaths occurred among these marginalized groups. Powerful social capital networks within dominant clans ensure resilience, but such support rarely extends to weaker communities. This structural exclusion also distorts humanitarian aid distribution and reinforces cycles of vulnerability. Somalia’s delayed constitutional process and federal structure risk entrenching exclusion if federalism becomes a system of clan-based territorial dominance. Meanwhile, extremist groups like Al-Shabaab exploit resentment against elite monopolies to recruit from marginalized populations. A new, inclusive social contract is urgently needed , one that extends social capital beyond clan lines and protects minority rights. Somali-led dialogue, supported by international partners, can help ensure that federalism, citizenship, and development are rights-based, equitable, and resistant to exploitation by extremist narratives.