Somalia’s political landscape is facing a dramatic shift as around 400 clan leaders from the Hawiye clan issued a historic declaration rejecting President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year extension. The Pan Hawiye congress in Mogadishu marked a seminal moment, calling for annulment of the extension, depoliticisation of military and security forces, and a return to the 17 September accord. This unprecedented cohesion among Hawiye sub-clans signals growing challenges for Villa Somalia and renders Farmaajo’s extended term increasingly untenable. Traditionally divided between Habar Gedir and Mudulood factions, the Hawiye have been manipulated by Farmaajo through Senate seat allocations and key appointments to undercut opposition support. Now, the clans are uniting, mobilizing militias, and establishing defensive positions across Mogadishu, effectively reshaping the city into sub-clan enclaves reminiscent of past conflicts. Military tensions in the capital are rising, and even Farmaajo’s closest aides recognize the risk posed by his intransigence. With opposition consolidation and armed preparedness gaining momentum, Villa Somalia faces an unprecedented threat to its authority. Analysts suggest that Farmaajo’s continued defiance could provoke large-scale confrontations, making it clear that political survival without compromise is increasingly unlikely. The Hawiye’s decisive stance may well determine the next phase of Somalia’s political transition and the stability of its capital.
Somalia faces a mounting political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted a hurried Kinshasa visit to request African Union mediation on the country’s stalled electoral process. Farmaajo portrayed his government as seeking a “Somali-led and Somali-owned” dialogue to restore trust and advance democratic governance, but the effort was curtailed to accommodate Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the National Salvation Forum, formally addressed the UN Security Council, denouncing Farmaajo’s two-year term extension as illegal and unconstitutional, warning it could unravel the nation’s fragile peace. On the ground in Mogadishu, opposition-aligned security forces have taken positions across nearly half of the city, including Abgaal, Hodan, Dayniile, and Barmuuda districts, heightening tensions. A recent assassination attempt by the new NISA militia “Duufaan,” reportedly trained in Eritrea, underscores the volatile security environment. Opposition leaders, including former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryare and General Mohamud Mohamed ‘Koronto,’ are consolidating forces to challenge Farmaajo’s grip, threatening Mogadishu’s stability. International partners face a critical decision: rely on Farmaajo’s diplomatic maneuvers or act decisively to prevent conflict. With tensions rising and armed opposition presence growing, it is clear that hope alone cannot stabilize Somalia’s capital, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures.
Mogadishu is dangerously on edge following President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year mandate extension. The city faces a rising threat of armed confrontation as rival security formations mobilize, and the federal army and intelligence services begin to fragment. Reports indicate a potential major shakeup in military command as Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power. While internal divisions within the regime are accelerating under mounting international pressure, Farmaajo still maintains strong loyalist networks capable of sustaining him through initial turbulence. At the same time, Somalia’s opposition has demonstrated restraint but is preparing an alternative administration, the Provisional Sovereign Salvation Council, which could trigger further clashes. Opposition leaders command significant clan-based militias equipped with heavy weaponry and battlewagons, which could overwhelm government elite units in sustained conflict. The escalating crisis highlights the urgent need for decisive international action, including sanctions targeting Farmaajo and his key supporters, to prevent Mogadishu from descending into large-scale violence. With political instability, armed rivalries, and the risk of civil strife intensifying, Somalia stands at a critical juncture that demands immediate attention to protect democratic principles and national security.