Speculation that Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea may establish a joint defense and security pact has sparked concern among regional analysts and Somali political figures. Such an agreement would consolidate authoritarian practices in the Horn of Africa, destabilize Somalia’s fragile democracy, and undermine reform efforts across the region. Somalia’s President Farmaajo, facing a political deadlock and refusing to leave Villa Somalia, could leverage the pact to expel AMISOM and extend his grip on power indefinitely with support from regional allies. In Ethiopia, PM Abiy’s military cooperation with Eritrea has helped contain internal conflicts, including the Tigray war, while Eritrea itself continues to export instability across borders. Under a tripartite security arrangement, Eritrea could extend its influence over Somalia and Ethiopia, shaping regional politics to its advantage while circumventing international sanctions. Critics warn that the pact would create an axis of entrenched “Big Men,” reinforce authoritarian learning, reverse democratic gains, and escalate regional instability. The alliance’s strategic implications could ripple across the Horn, threatening not only Somalia’s democracy but also peace and security in neighboring countries. Vigilance and coordinated international engagement are essential to mitigate the risks posed by this potential alliance.