Somalia’s capital Mogadishu witnessed a night of intense violence as Al‑Shabaab militants carried out multiple coordinated attacks across at least six locations between 1am and 5am. The primary target was Kaxda police station, which was hit by a VBIED and overrun, leaving the compound flattened and vehicles seized. Simultaneous mortar strikes hit Dar us Salaam, Hawa Abdi, Sinka Dheer, Ceelasha Biyaha, and Carbiska in Dayniile, disrupting reinforcements and creating widespread panic. Analysts suggest the assault was aimed at intimidating key clans, particularly the Sheekhal, amid tense political manoeuvring tied to Somalia’s disputed elections. Dayniile, long an Al‑Shabaab stronghold, remains under heavy militant influence, with the group deeply entrenched in Mogadishu’s political and economic life. The attacks highlight Al‑Shabaab’s growing strength, their control over strategic districts, and their ability to tax businesses, provide local justice, and stage cross‑border operations into Kenya. In rural regions such as Bay, Bakool, and Galguduud, militants have regained territory amid political fragmentation and the sidelining of local anti‑Al‑Shabaab forces like ASWJ. The escalation raises urgent questions over Somalia’s security strategy, the effectiveness of the Somalia Transition Plan (STP), and the future role of AU forces under ATMIS as the country’s security crisis deepens.
Somalia’s security challenges are deeply intertwined with politics, as fragile military and police institutions struggle under chronic interference and nepotism. Despite improvements in training, numbers, and equipment, the lack of a professional, politically neutral environment undermines cohesion and morale. Key positions are dominated by loyalists to former President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo, with specialized units serving partisan objectives rather than national security. Decades of structural and systemic issues exacerbate the problem. The recent political crisis has intensified these challenges, splitting the Somali National Army (SNA) and police, mobilizing clan militias, and displacing over 100,000 civilians from Mogadishu. Attacks on opposition leaders and Farmaajo’s term extension fueled militarization of politics, leaving the city divided and opposition forces in control of much of the capital. Prime Minister Mohammed Roble’s 10-point plan to disengage forces, address grievances, and reintegrate units offers a pathway toward stability. However, lasting security depends on a political roadmap agreed by all stakeholders, empowering Roble to enforce authority, unify command chains, and create conditions for credible elections, bridging the gap between Somalia’s military effectiveness and political governance.