President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returns to power in a vastly different Somalia from the one he governed in 2012–2017. Domestically, the new administration must navigate tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its Federal Member States (FMSs), healing divides caused by the previous Farmaajo regime. Hassan Sheikh is expected to revive inclusive dialogue and foster cooperation, particularly with estranged states like Jubaland and Puntland. Internationally, the landscape has also shifted. Relations with Kenya are strained, Ethiopia is focused inward due to conflict, and the controversial Tripartite Alliance with Ethiopia and Eritrea is losing momentum. The president is likely to distance Somalia from Eritrea and Qatar while seeking balanced ties with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Security remains a critical concern. The resurgence of Al-Shabaab, the collapse of past coordination, and the politicisation of forces under Farmaajo have weakened progress. Hassan Sheikh’s leadership is anticipated to return focus to unified counter-terrorism strategies with renewed international support.
The election defeat of former Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo marks the end of a turbulent era defined by hypernationalism and divisive populism. His Nabad iyo Nolol (N&N) movement fused ultranationalist rhetoric, conservative religiosity, and authoritarian politics, reshaping Somalia’s political landscape. Drawing inspiration from Trump-style populism, Farmaajo and his allies weaponised nationalism, framing themselves as the sole defenders of Somali identity while labelling opponents as traitors. This ideology tapped into Pan-Somali sentiments, inflaming tensions with Kenya, straining regional relations, and deepening internal divisions. N&N also found ideological allies in the conservative Salafi movement Al-I’tisaam, reinforcing a rigid, intolerant worldview. Even with Farmaajo out of office, the movement’s influence persists with a substantial bloc in parliament still loyal to his ideas.
Somalia’s political landscape shifted dramatically as Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur (Adan Madoobe) secured the Lower House speakership with 163 votes, defeating Farmaajo-backed Hassan Abdinoor. Madoobe’s win, alongside Abdi Hashi Abdullahi’s re-election as Upper House speaker, signals waning influence for Farmaajo’s Nabad iyo Nolol party. The elections also made history with Saadia Yasin Haji Samatar becoming Somalia’s first female deputy speaker. The Farmaajo camp’s attempts to disrupt the process, including blocking MPs from entering the venue and even trying to sabotage air conditioning, failed to prevent the opposition’s victories. In a decisive move, Speaker Madoobe asserted authority over security forces until a new president is elected, warning commanders against political interference. This comes amid reports of ongoing efforts by Villa Somalia to exploit disputed Gedo elections to delay the process.
The legal challenge by former Somali intelligence chief and National Security Adviser Fahad Yasin to regain his parliamentary seat has become a defining moment in Somalia’s turbulent political scene. After the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) removed his name over allegations of fraud and manipulation, Yasin has turned to the Supreme Court, despite it having no jurisdiction over electoral disputes. His move reflects a sharp decline in his political dominance, as both acting Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and the FEIT remain firm in rejecting any reversal. The case underscores the broader struggle between President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s camp and opposition forces, particularly over the contested Gedo seats. Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe has rejected Farmaajo’s proposals to split these seats, promising free and fair elections instead. Meanwhile, tensions remain high over the expulsion of African Union envoy Francisco Madeira, with political temperatures rising in Mogadishu.