Geography provides a vital lens for understanding Somalia’s political evolution, especially the widening North-South divide in governance since the collapse of the Barre regime in 1991. In 2021, Somaliland held credible parliamentary and municipal elections, while Puntland conducted its first direct local elections in select districts milestones that contrast sharply with the prolonged, chaotic electoral process in southern Somalia. Somaliland and Puntland, despite contested borders and deep clan differences, have cultivated a form of “positive rivalry” that fuels democratic gains. This mutual learning fosters civic pride, investment in inclusive politics, and cross-border economic integration. Fishermen from Puntland now use Berbera’s modernized port, while livestock farmers in both regions trade freely across soft borders. The Berbera Corridor and other trade routes promise greater intra-Somali economic potential. However, the democratic experiment faces threats from hardline Islamist movements like Al-I’tisam, which seek to curb freedoms and gain political control. The best defence lies in sustaining democratic reforms, expanding civil liberties, and investing in equitable economic opportunities. Somaliland and Puntland’s commitment to inclusive governance may hold the key not only to resolving their disputes but also to shaping a more stable, prosperous Somali future.
Al-Shabaab’s persistence in Somalia is less a purely military problem and more a governance challenge. US AFRICOM commander Gen. Stephen Townsend recently highlighted that Somalia’s political dysfunction exacerbated by the federal government’s conflicts with member states and the extra-constitutional extension of the president’s term is a greater obstacle than the insurgency itself. Years of counterterrorism campaigns, even those achieving territorial gains against Al-Shabaab since 2010, have failed to stabilize recovered areas due to poor governance, lack of local support, and ineffective political leadership. Newly liberated regions often became unstable, ungoverned, or prey to clan rivalries, while government troops engaged in predatory practices, alienating local populations. Scholars like David Kilcullen emphasize that successful counterinsurgency requires winning the public, not merely defeating the enemy. In Somalia, the connection between governance and security is stark: without political and administrative reforms accompanying military victories, Al-Shabaab remains resilient. The insurgent group continues to exploit weak institutions, poor leadership, and local grievances to sustain influence and operations across Somalia. Strengthening governance, ensuring accountability, and improving federal-local coordination are essential to complement military action and reduce the enduring threat posed by Al-Shabaab to Somalia and the wider region.