Somalia’s long-overdue parliamentary elections, initially planned for 2020 as a one-person, one-vote process, have devolved into a drawn-out and opaque indirect voting system. The Federal Implementation Electoral Team (FEIT), tasked with overseeing the process, has struggled to deliver even this reduced model, leading to piecemeal seat-by-seat voting vulnerable to manipulation. Political interference from Villa Somalia, disputes over elector selection, and rivalries between Federal Member States (FMS) have further complicated proceedings. FMS leaders, including those from Puntland and Jubaland, are leveraging the process to secure loyal MPs, while Villa Somalia benefits from financial backing and influence over key voting blocs such as the Somaliland caucus and Banaadiri seats. The opposition Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) remains excluded from negotiations and has threatened force if the process undermines their interests, raising fears of renewed unrest in Mogadishu. Efforts to reset the electoral timetable through the National Consultative Council (NCC) face resistance from both domestic actors and international donors. The United Nations and key partners, by insisting on upholding the flawed May 27 agreement, risk entrenching a process that lacks transparency, credibility, and inclusivity. Without urgent reforms, Somalia’s elections could deepen political instability rather than resolve it.
Somalia’s National Consultative Forum (NCF) has resumed in Mogadishu after HirShabelle President Ali Gudlaawe’s last-minute hesitation, with talks focused on finalizing Federal and State Electoral Implementation Teams (FEIT and SEIT) and moving forward with the delayed elections. Despite the May 27 electoral agreement and road map, contentious issues remain such as the number of voting venues per state and the reduction of electors per MP from 101 to 51. The selection of Somaliland representatives also remains unresolved. Security is worsening, with Al-Shabaab ramping up attacks in Galmudug, Jowhar, and across the Kenya border. AMISOM withdrawals have led to immediate territorial losses to the militants. Political trust is eroding, as Federal Member State leaders and opposition doubt acting PM Mohamed Hussein Roble’s authority, citing interference from President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and intelligence chief Fahad Yasin.
Somalia’s fragile electoral process faces yet another hurdle as HirShabelle leader Ali Gudlaawe skips a crucial stakeholders’ meeting announced by PM Mohamed Hussein Roble two weeks ago. While Gudlaawe is reportedly in Turkey on a routine visit, his absence fuels speculation of deliberate stalling tactics linked to Villa Somalia and President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. Gudlaawe, a close ally of Farmaajo and former intelligence chief Fahad Yasin, rose to power in HirShabelle through a controversial process that fractured the region. His no-show has sparked multiple theories: discontent over federal constituency rules, backlash against Harama’ad police deployments in Jowhar, or simply playing a role in Farmaajo’s alleged bid to delay elections through procedural slowdowns.
Somalia’s 27 May electoral agreement between acting Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and federal member state leaders was hailed as a breakthrough in preventing political chaos. The deal was welcomed as a step toward stability, but opposition leaders warned of lingering risks, especially from former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. Just weeks earlier, Farmaajo had attempted to extend his term by two years, backing down only after strong public and armed opposition. While Roble pledged fair elections and was tasked with overseeing security, opposition demands to remove Farmaajo loyalists from electoral committees and key security positions were only partially met. Politicized forces like the Turkish-trained Gorgor commandos, Haram’ad paramilitary police, and NISA intelligence remain active in key election areas.
Somalia’s political crisis is once again teetering on the edge, with fears that the country’s electoral process could devolve into “Ila Meerayso II” a repeat of past political deadlock. PM Mohammed Roble, initially praised for brokering an agreement to defuse Mogadishu tensions, is now facing opposition criticism for inaction, unnecessary foreign travel, and failure to prepare for crucial electoral talks scheduled for 20 May. The Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) has accused Roble of losing focus and urged him to assert independence from Villa Somalia. Meanwhile, the Farmaajo administration has intensified its confrontations opposing AU envoy John Mahama, banning a UAE Kenyan charter airline delivering Somaliland election materials, and allegedly targeting pro-opposition officers.
Somalia is facing a deepening political crisis as former President Farmaajo attempts to extend his mandate, threatening the nation’s stability. Recent chaos in parliament, where pro-Farmaajo and opposition MPs clashed, underscores the risk of escalating conflict. Reports of NISA plainclothes teams being deployed further fuel fears of a forceful push to legitimize an illegal extension. Talks based on the 17 September electoral accord have run their course, revealing that Somalia’s political actors alone cannot achieve a consensus. Experts argue that a neutral multiparty mediation led by international partners is essential to break the deadlock. A proposed 4-point strategy includes: (1) immediate takeover by international partners to mediate, host, and manage elections, (2) a clear call to Villa Somalia to abandon the mandate extension plan, (3) recognition of Farmaajo as a candidate, not an interim leader, and (4) full transfer of executive powers to the Prime Minister or Speaker of Parliament. This approach aims to prevent further political fragmentation, safeguard democratic processes, and restore public trust. Without decisive international intervention, Somalia risks further instability, polarized governance, and erosion of constitutional order.
Somalia’s electoral system is at a critical juncture, with the collapse of two decades of negotiated electoral cycles leaving the country divided. Currently, two parallel processes are underway: one led by former President Farmaajo and the other by the opposition National Salvation Forum (NSF). The international community’s repeated warnings against partial or unilateral elections have proved ineffective, reflecting the urgency of new approaches to restore credibility. For a unified electoral process to succeed, the International Community must take an active leadership role, bringing all Somali actors together, brokering settlements, and acting as guarantors. Farmaajo must recognize his status as a candidate among three former presidents and relinquish control over electoral oversight. Any attempt to delay or manipulate the process, or to use military force against Federal Member States or the opposition, should prompt punitive measures. If portions of the 17 September 2020 framework agreement remain contentious, Somalia should revert to the 2016-17 electoral model to ensure fairness and legitimacy. Immediate, decisive action is required to stabilize political incentives, safeguard democratic processes, and restore trust between the government, opposition, and international stakeholders. Without intervention, Somalia risks further fragmentation, political instability, and erosion of democratic norms.