Somalia stands at a critical crossroads as caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble convenes the National Consultative Forum with the Federal Government, Federal Member States (FMSs), and the Banadir Regional Administration. The agenda focuses on finalizing preparations for the House of the People elections, electoral funding, and resolving deep-seated disputes that threaten the democratic process. Allegations of widespread corruption, bias in candidate selection, and manipulation by both FGS and FMS leaders have cast serious doubt on the legitimacy of the upcoming vote. Key issues, such as the unresolved Somaliland and Gedo disputes, have further fueled political instability. Meanwhile, reports of clan militarization in Galmudug and HirShabelle raise fears of escalating violence, displacement, and humanitarian crises. The shadow of Afghanistan’s collapse looms large, emboldening extremist groups like Al-Shabaab as Somalia’s political class remains entangled in election disputes. Without transparency, accountability, and an inclusive roadmap, donor confidence may erode, jeopardizing both funding and international support. PM Roble must act decisively setting clear milestones, ensuring impartiality, and fostering dialogue between Mogadishu and regional states. Commitment to federalism, security sector reform, and constitutional review will be essential to prevent Somalia from slipping into further turmoil.
After months of delays, Somalia’s indirect elections concluded with the swearing-in of the 11th Parliament on April 14. The process, marred by manipulation and backroom deals, delivered a legislature dominated by young, inexperienced members, with over 60% under 40 and far below the promised 30% quota for women. Many MPs owe their seats to political patrons like Federal Member State leaders and former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, rather than merit or competitive elections. A striking feature is the presence of at least 35 security officials, including active-duty National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) officers, raising concerns over parliamentary impartiality. The early sessions have already been chaotic, with MPs storming the podium, political boycotts, and even mortar attacks failing to halt proceedings.
Fahad Yasin, once the powerful National Security Advisor to President Farmaajo and the de facto head of Somalia’s NISA, has been dropped from the final list of MPs by the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT). Though a victory for many hoping to restore credibility in Somalia’s electoral process, fears remain that Fahad could still coerce his way back into parliament. His controversial nomination for the HoP#086 seat in Beledweyne faced rejection after clan leaders alleged the use of a fake elder to legitimize his candidacy. Fahad's history marked by allegations of links to Al-Shabaab, the manipulation of security forces, and targeted political violence makes his removal from parliament both a relief and a warning.
Somalia’s upcoming political transition faces unprecedented risks as Fahad Yasin, former NISA chief and master political strategist, enters parliament. Known for his vast financial resources and unmatched ability to influence elections, Fahad is now positioned to manipulate the presidential race from within. The next Somali parliament is shaping up to be an auction house, where money, not merit, determines outcomes. With only 60% of Lower House seats filled and key constituencies like Garbahaarey deadlocked, the election process is mired in delays, manipulation, and clan grievances. Four scenarios dominate: further breakdowns in the electoral process; a controversial Farmaajo re-election requiring massive manipulation; Fahad backing a new candidate like Abdulkarim Guled, Hassan Ali Khaire, or Dahir Mohamud Gelle; or the opposition uniting behind a single figure such as Sheikh Sharif, Abdirahman Abdishakur, or Hassan Sheikh.
Somalia’s political scene stands at a tense crossroads, shaped by President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” Mohamed’s bold maneuvers and the delicate dance of international diplomacy. Over recent years, the administration has engaged in tactical electoral manipulation, strategic alliances, and calculated resistance to foreign pressure, challenging both domestic opponents and Western envoys. Efforts by international partners to broker dialogue have repeatedly clashed with Villa Somalia’s insistence on controlling the political narrative, creating a stalemate that risks deepening instability. The tensions reflect a broader struggle over Somalia’s political future — a contest between the vision of a centralized authority and calls for inclusive governance. Meanwhile, missed peace opportunities and the erosion of trust between stakeholders have left the country vulnerable to renewed conflict. As Western diplomats attempt to mediate, the stakes remain high: the fragile progress Somalia has made could be undone if political fragmentation intensifies. This is not simply a story of internal politics but a test of whether Somalia’s leadership and international partners can align for sustainable stability. The coming months will determine if dialogue can prevail over division, or if Somalia will be drawn deeper into a cycle of political brinkmanship.
Somalia faces a critical turning point as years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and political coercion under Villa Somalia have pushed the country toward escalating instability. The government’s disputed electoral process, lacking legitimacy and public trust, risks deepening political fragmentation, with the possibility of parallel power structures emerging. Opposition forces reject the current roadmap, warning of unrest if inclusive political dialogue is not restored. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy some Ethiopian National Defence Forces from southern Somalia creates a security vacuum in key areas like Gedo and South West State. This shift could embolden Al-Shabaab and further destabilize the tri-border region with Kenya and Ethiopia. The African Union Mission’s drawdown adds urgency to finding sustainable political and security solutions. International actors are calling for a credible electoral process, enhanced regional security coordination, and the prevention of armed conflict. Without decisive action, Somalia risks sliding into a prolonged crisis, threatening both national stability and regional peace. This analysis explores the political maneuvers, security risks, and urgent policy actions needed to safeguard Somalia’s fragile statehood and prevent a return to widespread violence.
Somalia is at a critical crossroads as two years of electoral manipulation, bribery, coercion, and political co-optation by Villa Somalia have eroded the integrity of the country’s democratic process. The manipulated elections lack popular support, resulting in widespread disillusionment and deepening mistrust in governance. The country faces a growing risk of political fragmentation, with Villa Somalia potentially pursuing a parallel, illegitimate process while the opposition prepares counter-strategies. This instability is compounded by external pressures, such as Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy its forces from parts of southern Somalia, leaving security vacuums in strategic areas. The withdrawal raises concerns about increased militant activity in the tri-border region between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. With national cohesion weakening, political tensions escalating, and security deteriorating, Somalia risks sliding back into deeper conflict. The situation demands urgent political compromise, credible electoral reforms, and inclusive dialogue among stakeholders to prevent further destabilization. Without decisive action, Somalia’s fragile state could face another protracted crisis with dire consequences for its people and the broader Horn of Africa.
Somalia is facing a dangerous political impasse after years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and coercion by Villa Somalia. The current process, widely seen as fraudulent and lacking legitimacy, risks collapsing entirely, with the opposition threatening to boycott and possibly launch a parallel election. Tensions in Mogadishu are rising as the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) explores forming a caretaker Sovereign or Salvation Council in January 2022, potentially including federal state presidents and parliamentary speakers to oversee credible elections. Advocates argue that such a council could end years of paralysis, improve decision-making, and deliver a fairer process. However, challenges include limited international appetite for a new arrangement and the risk of drawn-out negotiations. Many Somalis remain disillusioned after past caretaker experiments, particularly with Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble’s perceived failure.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has brought a refreshing change to Somalia’s political landscape, contrasting sharply with the tense environment under former President Farmaajo. Since assuming office, Roble has worked to resolve political uncertainty, secure consensus among stakeholders, and advance the federal election process. He has garnered public support by opposing Farmaajo’s controversial term extension, facilitating dialogue through the National Consultative Council, and upholding justice in the Ikraan Tahlil case, standing firm against influential figures. Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Roble must maintain the fragile consensus among federal member states and national institutions, focusing on completing the elections without delays. Limiting non-essential foreign trips and diplomatic engagements is crucial to avoid perceptions of campaigning. Above all, he must remain neutral, steering clear of favoritism or political endorsements, and address speculation about his own presidential ambitions.
American diplomacy in Somalia has reached a troubling low amid the ongoing electoral crisis. The US embassy’s recent statement urging Somali leaders to remain in Mogadishu “until an election agreement is reached” reflects a tone-deaf and one-sided approach, failing to account for the opposition’s concerns. While the Federal Member State leaders of Puntland and Jubaland patiently waited for talks, former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo continued to obstruct the electoral process, deploying paramilitary units and intelligence forces to consolidate power. Farmaajo’s priority is not credible elections but securing a victory that guarantees his continued rule, undermining Somalia’s fragile democracy. Meanwhile, the US and other international partners have leaned on a weak framework election agreement from September, ignoring Farmaajo’s repeated violations and violent suppression of dissent. This mismanagement signals a dangerous precedent for American involvement in the Horn of Africa, highlighting the risks of biased intervention and the failure to ensure neutral mediation. Somalia’s opposition demands fair dialogue, credible electoral guarantees, and international support that is genuinely impartial. The Biden administration faces an early test of its commitment to peace and stability in Somalia, with the nation’s democratic future hanging in the balance.
The meeting in Halane between President Farmaajo and regional leaders is unlikely to produce a lasting solution for Somalia’s stalled electoral process. Past agreements have consistently unraveled once international attention waned, exposing the fragility of pacts imposed under external pressure. Farmaajo’s actions over the last two years reveal that he does not seek a credible vote. His priority has been to buy time and consolidate power, aiming for a regime extension by any means necessary. Throughout his tenure, Farmaajo has emphasized the need for a “strong government” over democratic elections, signaling intentions to weaken Somalia’s federal system, sideline opposition, and establish autocratic control. International partners, in their short-term approach, risk legitimizing another unstable electoral pact that Villa Somalia will almost certainly ignore. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey’s growing influence undermines Western leverage, reducing the effectiveness of traditional diplomacy in Somalia. Opportunities to encourage a peaceful transition such as nudging Farmaajo to step down after 8 February or supporting the opposition led National Salvation Council were missed. Without a coordinated strategy that accounts for these realities, Somalia faces continued political instability. International actors must recalibrate their approach, focusing on long-term democratic reforms rather than temporary deals that entrench Farmaajo’s power.
Somalia’s opposition alliance has taken a decisive step by forming the National Salvation Council (NSC) to lead efforts in completing the stalled electoral process. This bold initiative signals frustration with Villa Somalia’s evasive tactics and prolonged political wrangling, which have undermined trust and stalled the country’s democratic progress. Over two years of setbacks and unfulfilled dialogues have made it clear that Farmaajo’s administration is incapable of ensuring a fair and orderly vote. The NSC formation reflects the opposition’s intent to seize the initiative and pre-empt Farmaajo’s unilateral plans to extend his mandate by convening regional allies. By establishing this council, opposition forces aim to restore credibility to the electoral process and challenge attempts to dominate political dialogue. The council may also serve as a platform for broader stakeholder participation if international partners fail to mediate effectively. The NSC acts as a warning that Somalia’s political transition is inevitable. Its success depends on the willingness of Farmaajo to set aside his claim to the presidency and engage in inclusive talks as a candidate. International partners are urged to act as guarantors to ensure negotiations are fair, transparent, and peaceful. Ultimately, the NSC could shape a path toward either a consensual or coercive transition in Somalia.
Somalia’s opposition faces a critical moment as President Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power, taking advantage of weak international responses. Over recent weeks, the opposition has engaged in talks with caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, hoping to achieve democratic concessions. However, these efforts have largely been undermined by Villa Somalia, which perceives Roble’s negotiations as yielding too much. The opposition Council of Presidential Candidates finds itself adrift, with its restraint and peaceful gestures including suspending mass protests unreciprocated by both Farmaajo and international partners. Meanwhile, the term “spoiler” has been weaponized against the opposition, framing it as obstructive and enabling Farmaajo to maintain an upper hand. Farmaajo, emboldened by key international backers, continues to buy time, consolidate his illegal mandate extension, and manipulate the electoral process. With at least five months to influence polling outcomes, the opposition must craft a proactive strategy. This includes demanding Farmaajo’s resignation, safeguarding electoral fairness, and revitalizing peaceful civil disobedience to pressure the regime. Without decisive action, the opposition risks being marginalized and legitimizing Farmaajo’s undemocratic maneuvers. Crafting a robust, unified approach is essential to protect Somalia’s democratic process, limit electoral manipulation, and ensure a fair and transparent transition of power.