Somalia faces a critical turning point as years of electoral manipulation, bribery, and political coercion under Villa Somalia have pushed the country toward escalating instability. The government’s disputed electoral process, lacking legitimacy and public trust, risks deepening political fragmentation, with the possibility of parallel power structures emerging. Opposition forces reject the current roadmap, warning of unrest if inclusive political dialogue is not restored. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy some Ethiopian National Defence Forces from southern Somalia creates a security vacuum in key areas like Gedo and South West State. This shift could embolden Al-Shabaab and further destabilize the tri-border region with Kenya and Ethiopia. The African Union Mission’s drawdown adds urgency to finding sustainable political and security solutions. International actors are calling for a credible electoral process, enhanced regional security coordination, and the prevention of armed conflict. Without decisive action, Somalia risks sliding into a prolonged crisis, threatening both national stability and regional peace. This analysis explores the political maneuvers, security risks, and urgent policy actions needed to safeguard Somalia’s fragile statehood and prevent a return to widespread violence.
In the early hours of the morning, Somalia’s embattled President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo delivered a pre-recorded televised address, attempting to reassure the nation while reaffirming the 17 September electoral pact and Baidoa advisory recommendations. His speech blamed domestic spoilers and foreign instigators for the escalating conflict, yet it fell on deaf ears as opposition forces had already seized control of more than half of Mogadishu. Farmaajo’s few remaining allies, including the presidents of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West State, and the Governor of Banaadir, publicly denounced his attempt to extend his mandate, while Prime Minister Roble called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. International partners welcomed these interventions, highlighting Farmaajo’s growing isolation.
Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, is once again engulfed in violence, with opposition forces seizing control of large parts of the city. While political attention focuses on President Farmaajo, Prime Minister Roble, and opposition leaders, the man with the most influence over the armed landscape may be NISA Director General Fahad Yasin. Under his leadership, NISA has evolved from an intelligence agency into a militarized force, commanding elite units such as the US-trained Gaashan and Waran, the Eritrean-trained Duufaan, Turkish-trained Gorgor, and Qatari-backed Haram’ad. Fahad’s forces have played a central role in both regional conflicts and recent Mogadishu clashes, including alleged assassination attempts on opposition figures. Despite their specialized training, some units have suffered costly battlefield failures. As other military and police commanders defect, NISA, Gorgor, and Haram’ad remain the core of Farmaajo’s protection though even these could fragment along clan lines.
On Sunday evening, Mogadishu descended into some of its worst violence in years, as rival armed groups clashed across the city during Ramadan. For nearly five hours, mortars, RPGs, and heavy weapons echoed through the streets, forcing terrified families to flee. The fighting sparked by attacks on opposition leaders’ residences quickly escalated into a full-scale confrontation between forces loyal to President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo and opposition-aligned army, police, and clan militias. Villa Somalia itself was struck by mortar fire, and loyalist forces suffered major setbacks, retreating from key districts. While Prime Minister Mohammed Roble announced a late-night truce, the opposition disputes its existence, accusing government forces of unprovoked aggression. Observers fear the violence will intensify without decisive third-party intervention, amid speculation of possible Eritrean support for Farmaajo. Analysts argue that Farmaajo has taken a reckless gamble against a unified and deeply aggrieved clan coalition, one with the capacity for sustained resistance.
Somalia faces a mounting political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted a hurried Kinshasa visit to request African Union mediation on the country’s stalled electoral process. Farmaajo portrayed his government as seeking a “Somali-led and Somali-owned” dialogue to restore trust and advance democratic governance, but the effort was curtailed to accommodate Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the National Salvation Forum, formally addressed the UN Security Council, denouncing Farmaajo’s two-year term extension as illegal and unconstitutional, warning it could unravel the nation’s fragile peace. On the ground in Mogadishu, opposition-aligned security forces have taken positions across nearly half of the city, including Abgaal, Hodan, Dayniile, and Barmuuda districts, heightening tensions. A recent assassination attempt by the new NISA militia “Duufaan,” reportedly trained in Eritrea, underscores the volatile security environment. Opposition leaders, including former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryare and General Mohamud Mohamed ‘Koronto,’ are consolidating forces to challenge Farmaajo’s grip, threatening Mogadishu’s stability. International partners face a critical decision: rely on Farmaajo’s diplomatic maneuvers or act decisively to prevent conflict. With tensions rising and armed opposition presence growing, it is clear that hope alone cannot stabilize Somalia’s capital, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures.
Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo faces increasing international isolation and domestic financial collapse, prompting a strategic “Look East” pivot. Relations with Somalia’s traditional Western partners, particularly the EU, have deteriorated over the electoral crisis, which Farmaajo bears primary responsibility for. In late 2020, the EU withheld budgetary assistance to pressure the regime, creating a major shortfall that hindered civil service and military payments. Despite this, Villa Somalia maintained the illusion of electoral progress through piecemeal negotiations, while planning for a unilateral term extension. As Western support waned, Farmaajo dispatched emissaries to the Gulf, Turkey, North Africa, and China, but key allies, including Egypt and Qatar, have been slow or reluctant to provide assistance. In a sign of growing desperation, the regime is now turning to Russia and other long-standing partners to secure financial backing. The Somali government faces mounting challenges: empty coffers, unpaid soldiers, civil servants going months without salaries, and the risk of mutinies. The coming weeks may prove decisive for Farmaajo’s ability to sustain his extended mandate, as the viability of his administration increasingly depends on foreign assistance and his capacity to maintain internal loyalty. Without a major external boost, the regime’s survival is in serious jeopardy.
Mogadishu is dangerously on edge following President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year mandate extension. The city faces a rising threat of armed confrontation as rival security formations mobilize, and the federal army and intelligence services begin to fragment. Reports indicate a potential major shakeup in military command as Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power. While internal divisions within the regime are accelerating under mounting international pressure, Farmaajo still maintains strong loyalist networks capable of sustaining him through initial turbulence. At the same time, Somalia’s opposition has demonstrated restraint but is preparing an alternative administration, the Provisional Sovereign Salvation Council, which could trigger further clashes. Opposition leaders command significant clan-based militias equipped with heavy weaponry and battlewagons, which could overwhelm government elite units in sustained conflict. The escalating crisis highlights the urgent need for decisive international action, including sanctions targeting Farmaajo and his key supporters, to prevent Mogadishu from descending into large-scale violence. With political instability, armed rivalries, and the risk of civil strife intensifying, Somalia stands at a critical juncture that demands immediate attention to protect democratic principles and national security.
Somalia faces a deepening political crisis as President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo signs a controversial two-year term extension, defying opposition voices and the Upper House’s rejection. The move underscores Farmaajo’s disregard for the rule of law and his strategic calculations to retain power despite widespread domestic and international opposition. Western governments, including the US, EU, and UK, have issued strong warnings, signaling potential sanctions, yet Farmaajo appears to calculate that the threat will not materialize. He also relies on support from foreign allies like Turkey and Qatar and anticipates a subdued public response during Ramadan. Villa Somalia’s confidence in its military and security apparatus, bolstered by external aid, raises the risk of armed conflict in Mogadishu and beyond. Analysts warn that the extension threatens Somalia’s fragile federal institutions, risks mass protests, and could further destabilize the Horn of Africa. The situation highlights the urgent need for coordinated international intervention to prevent escalation, protect democratic principles, and ensure a peaceful political transition. As Somalia navigates this critical juncture, the stakes for the nation’s future governance and stability have never been higher.