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  • The Somali Wire 276
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  • Published October 17, 2022

    Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has launched his #NoTurningBack campaign, pledging to “totally eliminate” Al‑Shabaab. The military push, supported by Somali National Army forces, Ma’awiisley militias, and regional leaders, has reclaimed territory and boosted morale. HSM’s rhetoric has ignited public enthusiasm, but analysts caution against over‑promising results. Terrorism, as experts note, is a tactic—not an enemy that can be permanently eradicated. The jihadist ideology behind Al‑Shabaab will persist, especially among disaffected groups. Unrealistic promises risk political backlash if progress stalls. The campaign’s sustainability is also uncertain, with reports of faltering morale and logistical strain in some regions. Some officials’ extreme rhetoric—such as targeting insurgents’ families—could backfire, fueling unrest. Meanwhile, the government is targeting Al‑Shabaab’s finances, warning businesses against paying the group’s “taxtortion.” But dismantling the group’s vast economic networks too abruptly could destabilize Somalia’s economy and politics. Observers urge a smarter, strategic approach: a coherent stabilisation plan, donor engagement, and strengthened national security architecture. Fighting harder is not enough—Somalia must fight smarter to sustain gains against Al‑Shabaab and avoid repeating past counterinsurgency mistakes.

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