Somalia’s most contentious presidential election in decades is set for 15 May 2022, with 39 cleared candidates vying for the top seat. This high-stakes race comes after years of political turmoil under President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s administration. Despite the $40,000 registration fee deterring unserious contenders, reports indicate rampant vote-buying, with a single MP’s vote fetching between $40,000 and $300,000. Farmaajo’s camp, allegedly backed by Qatari funds, is spending heavily but faces strong opposition determined to block his re-election. The frontrunners former presidents Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud—are neck-and-neck, with Puntland’s Sa’id Abdullahi Deni still a factor. Meanwhile, former PM Hassan Ali Kheyre’s credibility has been damaged by suspected ties to Farmaajo’s inner circle.
Somalia’s upcoming political transition faces unprecedented risks as Fahad Yasin, former NISA chief and master political strategist, enters parliament. Known for his vast financial resources and unmatched ability to influence elections, Fahad is now positioned to manipulate the presidential race from within. The next Somali parliament is shaping up to be an auction house, where money, not merit, determines outcomes. With only 60% of Lower House seats filled and key constituencies like Garbahaarey deadlocked, the election process is mired in delays, manipulation, and clan grievances. Four scenarios dominate: further breakdowns in the electoral process; a controversial Farmaajo re-election requiring massive manipulation; Fahad backing a new candidate like Abdulkarim Guled, Hassan Ali Khaire, or Dahir Mohamud Gelle; or the opposition uniting behind a single figure such as Sheikh Sharif, Abdirahman Abdishakur, or Hassan Sheikh.
Somalia’s diaspora, estimated at over two million people (12.5% of the population), plays a crucial role in the country’s economy and politics. Remittances alone reached $2 billion in 2019, sustaining millions of households, funding small and medium-sized enterprises, and revitalizing local economies. The return of skilled diaspora professionals, through programs like MiDA, has contributed to rebuilding key institutions such as the Central Bank. However, the political influence of the diaspora has sparked growing controversy. While some technocrats have improved governance, others have been sidelined, co-opted into politics, or promoted into ineffective roles. Under Farmaajo’s administration, diaspora dominance in parliament and the cabinet raised concerns about an emerging “diasporacracy.” Public perception surveys indicate rising tensions, with fears that diaspora elites could deepen social divisions. Despite their exposure to democratic systems abroad, many diaspora politicians have failed to foster transparency or reform, often perpetuating corruption and political dysfunction. Drawing lessons from Afghanistan’s experience with a self-serving diaspora elite, Somalia faces a critical challenge: harnessing the diaspora’s economic and intellectual strengths while curbing the political risks. Achieving this balance requires enlightened leadership, strategic planning, and governance reforms that prioritize inclusivity, accountability, and national unity.
The re-emergence of Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) in Galmudug is offering renewed hope for residents worn down by relentless Al-Shabaab offensives and the ineffective leadership of state president Ahmed Abdi Kariye “Qoor Qoor.” Once the most effective local force against Al-Shabaab, ASWJ was dismantled in 2020 through a Federal Government-backed operation, leaving a dangerous security vacuum. In the absence of ASWJ, Al-Shabaab swiftly expanded its presence, capturing territory and deepening instability in Galmudug. Led by respected spiritual leaders Moallim Mohamoud and Sheik Shakir, ASWJ’s return has been welcomed by the local population and elements of the Somali National Army (SNA). Their declaration of holy war against Al-Shabaab is seen as a credible call to action, supported by disaffected former members within the national forces. However, Qoor Qoor views ASWJ as a political threat and is mobilising state and clan forces against them, despite the pressing danger posed by Al-Shabaab.
Caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has brought a refreshing change to Somalia’s political landscape, contrasting sharply with the tense environment under former President Farmaajo. Since assuming office, Roble has worked to resolve political uncertainty, secure consensus among stakeholders, and advance the federal election process. He has garnered public support by opposing Farmaajo’s controversial term extension, facilitating dialogue through the National Consultative Council, and upholding justice in the Ikraan Tahlil case, standing firm against influential figures. Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Roble must maintain the fragile consensus among federal member states and national institutions, focusing on completing the elections without delays. Limiting non-essential foreign trips and diplomatic engagements is crucial to avoid perceptions of campaigning. Above all, he must remain neutral, steering clear of favoritism or political endorsements, and address speculation about his own presidential ambitions.