On May 1st, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo formally withdrew his illegal claim to a two-year term extension, delegating responsibility for election management and security to acting Prime Minister Mohammed Roble while retaining control as Commander-in-Chief. While this move was a welcome concession, it falls short of the decisive action needed to resolve Somalia’s ongoing political and constitutional crisis. The security environment in Mogadishu remains fragmented, with irregular units under NISA command and limited oversight of opposition forces. International calls to “demilitarise” the capital are premature given the persistent risk posed by divided government forces. To consolidate momentum, Roble should immediately take three key steps: include both the federal government and National Salvation Forum in the planned FMS summit on 20 May, convene a Preparatory Committee of stakeholders to define the agenda and format, and address challenging issues such as NISA deployment and AU protection of opposition candidates collectively.
Prime Minister Mohammed Roble hosted a crucial iftar gathering with leading politicians from the Hawiye clan, including presidential candidates Hassan Sheikh Mahmud, Abdirahman Abdishakur, and Hassan Khayre, along with pro-Farmaajo regional presidents Abdi Kariye Qoor Qoor and Ali Abdullahi Hussein Gudlaawe. The meeting showcased a relaxed atmosphere, highlighting Roble’s attempts to position himself as a mediator capable of brokering a peaceful resolution to Somalia’s political standoff. Roble leveraged his status as the senior-most Hawiye in government to appeal for restraint, urging leaders to stand down forces and avoid escalating tensions. However, his role remains delicate; the Prime Minister has largely been ceremonial, often bypassed by ministers and constrained by Villa Somalia. Farmaajo’s reliance on Roble as a bridge to the international community underscores both the opportunities and limitations of his position.
In the early hours of the morning, Somalia’s embattled President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo delivered a pre-recorded televised address, attempting to reassure the nation while reaffirming the 17 September electoral pact and Baidoa advisory recommendations. His speech blamed domestic spoilers and foreign instigators for the escalating conflict, yet it fell on deaf ears as opposition forces had already seized control of more than half of Mogadishu. Farmaajo’s few remaining allies, including the presidents of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West State, and the Governor of Banaadir, publicly denounced his attempt to extend his mandate, while Prime Minister Roble called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. International partners welcomed these interventions, highlighting Farmaajo’s growing isolation.
On Sunday evening, Mogadishu descended into some of its worst violence in years, as rival armed groups clashed across the city during Ramadan. For nearly five hours, mortars, RPGs, and heavy weapons echoed through the streets, forcing terrified families to flee. The fighting sparked by attacks on opposition leaders’ residences quickly escalated into a full-scale confrontation between forces loyal to President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo and opposition-aligned army, police, and clan militias. Villa Somalia itself was struck by mortar fire, and loyalist forces suffered major setbacks, retreating from key districts. While Prime Minister Mohammed Roble announced a late-night truce, the opposition disputes its existence, accusing government forces of unprovoked aggression. Observers fear the violence will intensify without decisive third-party intervention, amid speculation of possible Eritrean support for Farmaajo. Analysts argue that Farmaajo has taken a reckless gamble against a unified and deeply aggrieved clan coalition, one with the capacity for sustained resistance.
Somalia faces a mounting political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted a hurried Kinshasa visit to request African Union mediation on the country’s stalled electoral process. Farmaajo portrayed his government as seeking a “Somali-led and Somali-owned” dialogue to restore trust and advance democratic governance, but the effort was curtailed to accommodate Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the National Salvation Forum, formally addressed the UN Security Council, denouncing Farmaajo’s two-year term extension as illegal and unconstitutional, warning it could unravel the nation’s fragile peace. On the ground in Mogadishu, opposition-aligned security forces have taken positions across nearly half of the city, including Abgaal, Hodan, Dayniile, and Barmuuda districts, heightening tensions. A recent assassination attempt by the new NISA militia “Duufaan,” reportedly trained in Eritrea, underscores the volatile security environment. Opposition leaders, including former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryare and General Mohamud Mohamed ‘Koronto,’ are consolidating forces to challenge Farmaajo’s grip, threatening Mogadishu’s stability. International partners face a critical decision: rely on Farmaajo’s diplomatic maneuvers or act decisively to prevent conflict. With tensions rising and armed opposition presence growing, it is clear that hope alone cannot stabilize Somalia’s capital, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures.
Mogadishu is dangerously on edge following President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year mandate extension. The city faces a rising threat of armed confrontation as rival security formations mobilize, and the federal army and intelligence services begin to fragment. Reports indicate a potential major shakeup in military command as Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power. While internal divisions within the regime are accelerating under mounting international pressure, Farmaajo still maintains strong loyalist networks capable of sustaining him through initial turbulence. At the same time, Somalia’s opposition has demonstrated restraint but is preparing an alternative administration, the Provisional Sovereign Salvation Council, which could trigger further clashes. Opposition leaders command significant clan-based militias equipped with heavy weaponry and battlewagons, which could overwhelm government elite units in sustained conflict. The escalating crisis highlights the urgent need for decisive international action, including sanctions targeting Farmaajo and his key supporters, to prevent Mogadishu from descending into large-scale violence. With political instability, armed rivalries, and the risk of civil strife intensifying, Somalia stands at a critical juncture that demands immediate attention to protect democratic principles and national security.
The recent collapse of Somalia’s electoral talks between President Farmaajo and regional leaders confirms long-standing fears: Farmaajo never intended to allow a fair or meaningful process. Over two years, he cultivated the illusion of compromise, projecting himself as a willing mediator while systematically manipulating the electoral framework. Farmaajo replaced regional leaders with pliant allies, packed electoral commissions with supporters, employed time-wasting tactics, and deployed lethal force against opponents. The Afisyoone talks, closely monitored by foreign diplomats and media, gave the impression of progress, yet Farmaajo abruptly ended discussions after consulting advisers, leaving Jubaland and Puntland delegates stunned. This collapse signals the death of a political illusion and underscores the futility of further superficial rounds. It also highlights the urgent need for the international community to take Somalia’s opposition seriously. The proposed interim sovereign council offers a credible path forward, aiming to restore constitutional order, ensure an inclusive electoral process, and strengthen democratic institutions. The failure of Farmaajo’s theatrics presents an opportunity to chart a viable alternative road forward, empowering Somali leaders committed to lawful governance and reducing the influence of Al-Shabaab. The focus now is on restoring accountability, transparency, and legitimacy to Somalia’s electoral system.