On May 1st, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo formally withdrew his illegal claim to a two-year term extension, delegating responsibility for election management and security to acting Prime Minister Mohammed Roble while retaining control as Commander-in-Chief. While this move was a welcome concession, it falls short of the decisive action needed to resolve Somalia’s ongoing political and constitutional crisis. The security environment in Mogadishu remains fragmented, with irregular units under NISA command and limited oversight of opposition forces. International calls to “demilitarise” the capital are premature given the persistent risk posed by divided government forces. To consolidate momentum, Roble should immediately take three key steps: include both the federal government and National Salvation Forum in the planned FMS summit on 20 May, convene a Preparatory Committee of stakeholders to define the agenda and format, and address challenging issues such as NISA deployment and AU protection of opposition candidates collectively.
Somalia’s Lower House of Parliament remains at the center of the country’s deepening political crisis. Controversially extended in late 2020, it functions as a key driver of the stalemate that has paralyzed Somalia’s electoral and governance systems. Under the leadership of Speaker Mohammed Mursal, a close ally of President Farmaajo, the House has lost independence and credibility, becoming increasingly seen as an appendage of the Executive. The Parliament routinely violates the provisional constitution, flouts its own rules, and has facilitated Villa Somalia’s prolonged gerrymandering and electoral delays. The opposition fears that the House may be used to illegally extend Farmaajo’s stay in power, leveraging “business-as-usual” sessions to smuggle motions through. This concern is rooted in Mursal’s record of rapid and politically motivated decisions, including the 2020 ouster of former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire in under eight minutes. International partners have pressured Mursal to prevent any unconstitutional extension, yet Farmaajo continues to pursue his plan with Mursal’s support.