Somalia’s outgoing president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, recently visited Qatar alongside political ally Fahad Yasin, sparking speculation over Doha’s role in Somalia’s upcoming elections. The trip, held just weeks before Somalia chooses its next leader, is seen as highly unusual in diplomatic practice particularly given Farmaajo’s contested legitimacy after overstaying his constitutional mandate. Analysts suggest the visit was more than symbolic, potentially signaling that Qatar fully supports Farmaajo and Fahad as its preferred candidates. Such endorsement could sway Somalia’s political elite, given Doha’s extensive financial influence in the country. A telling detail emerged when Farmaajo was photographed with a folder labeled “The Somali Republic,” omitting the federal designation hinting at his political ambition to dismantle federalism and restore a centralized state, a vision aligned with regional allies Ethiopia and Eritrea. While unverified reports suggest Washington may be pressuring Qatar to steer Farmaajo away from another term, many analysts believe Doha’s actions point to clientelist regime consolidation rather than leadership change. The visit underscores the complex interplay of foreign influence, Somali political maneuvering, and the high-stakes battle over the country’s governance structure. The outcome could significantly impact Somalia’s political stability and its fragile federal system.
Al-Shabaab’s persistence in Somalia is less a purely military problem and more a governance challenge. US AFRICOM commander Gen. Stephen Townsend recently highlighted that Somalia’s political dysfunction exacerbated by the federal government’s conflicts with member states and the extra-constitutional extension of the president’s term is a greater obstacle than the insurgency itself. Years of counterterrorism campaigns, even those achieving territorial gains against Al-Shabaab since 2010, have failed to stabilize recovered areas due to poor governance, lack of local support, and ineffective political leadership. Newly liberated regions often became unstable, ungoverned, or prey to clan rivalries, while government troops engaged in predatory practices, alienating local populations. Scholars like David Kilcullen emphasize that successful counterinsurgency requires winning the public, not merely defeating the enemy. In Somalia, the connection between governance and security is stark: without political and administrative reforms accompanying military victories, Al-Shabaab remains resilient. The insurgent group continues to exploit weak institutions, poor leadership, and local grievances to sustain influence and operations across Somalia. Strengthening governance, ensuring accountability, and improving federal-local coordination are essential to complement military action and reduce the enduring threat posed by Al-Shabaab to Somalia and the wider region.