The legal challenge by former Somali intelligence chief and National Security Adviser Fahad Yasin to regain his parliamentary seat has become a defining moment in Somalia’s turbulent political scene. After the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) removed his name over allegations of fraud and manipulation, Yasin has turned to the Supreme Court, despite it having no jurisdiction over electoral disputes. His move reflects a sharp decline in his political dominance, as both acting Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and the FEIT remain firm in rejecting any reversal. The case underscores the broader struggle between President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s camp and opposition forces, particularly over the contested Gedo seats. Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe has rejected Farmaajo’s proposals to split these seats, promising free and fair elections instead. Meanwhile, tensions remain high over the expulsion of African Union envoy Francisco Madeira, with political temperatures rising in Mogadishu.
Somalia stands at a critical crossroads, grappling with deep political instability and mounting security threats. Over the past two years, Villa Somalia’s manipulation of the electoral process through bribery, coercion, and co-optation has undermined public trust, leading to a fraudulent and disorganized outcome that risks plunging the country into renewed conflict. The opposition’s rejection of the process raises the specter of political fragmentation, with the potential for rival administrations to emerge. Security dynamics are equally precarious. Ethiopia’s decision to redeploy troops from southern Somalia, abandoning key Forward Operating Bases in Gedo and South West State, leaves the tri-border area between Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia exposed to heightened militant activity, particularly from Al-Shabaab. The shift to mobile military units may weaken counter-insurgency capabilities and embolden extremist operations. Amid these challenges, Somalia faces a narrowing window to restore stability. The convergence of political discord, weakening security infrastructure, and external military recalibrations threatens to reverse hard-won gains. Without urgent reforms, inclusive dialogue, and coordinated regional security strategies, the country risks sliding into deeper crisis jeopardizing not only Somalia’s future but also the stability of the wider Horn of Africa.
Amid a worsening political crisis, Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo visited Qatar to meet Emir Hammad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, officially to seek drought aid. However, the timing suggests deeper political motives. While Farmaajo projected stability on the international stage, Somalia’s fragile electoral process was collapsing at home. The Council of Presidential Candidates denounced the polls as fraudulent and threatened a boycott. Qatar’s influence in Somalia has grown significantly, with Doha shaping domestic and foreign policy, managing political alliances, and providing financial backing to favored candidates. Once thought to be distancing itself from Somalia, Qatar has renewed support for Farmaajo and his ally Fahad Yasin, fueling speculation that former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire may serve as an alternative “Plan B” for Doha. Analysts believe Qatar’s long-term goal may be to integrate Al-Shabaab into the political system, a move that could be seen as capitulation if pursued amid electoral fraud and political unrest. Farmaajo’s Doha trip underscores the interplay between external influence and internal instability, raising concerns that Somalia’s governance may be increasingly determined by foreign agendas rather than domestic consensus.
The sudden reconciliation between Somalia’s caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Hussein Roble and outgoing President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo surprised many, sparking optimism for easing political tensions in Mogadishu. Mediated by South West State president Laftagareen, the deal promised cooperation on the electoral process and handling the Ikraan Tahliil case through the courts. However, the agreement lacks a written framework, relying instead on vague public statements. Critics argue it serves as a political tactic, allowing Farmaajo and his ally Fahad Yasin to regain influence. Laftagareen’s close ties to Villa Somalia raise doubts about his neutrality as mediator. The arrangement could weaken Roble’s position, potentially sidelining him in critical election decisions. The deal also risks burying the Ikraan Tahliil case, as Somalia’s judiciary is widely viewed as partisan and ineffective. Some observers speculate a third-party candidate, such as former Galmudug president Abdikarim Guled, may benefit from this détente, with Qatar possibly playing a behind-the-scenes role. While the agreement appears to promise stability, political analysts warn it could unravel quickly. The coming days may reveal whether this is genuine progress or merely another strategic manoeuvre in Somalia’s turbulent power struggles.
Somalia’s caretaker Prime Minister, Mohammed Hussein Roble, is facing a mounting whisper campaign aimed at discrediting him ahead of the October elections. Initially driven by Farmaajo loyalists, the effort now includes ultranationalists, Islamists, and some regional leaders who view Roble as too close to certain clans and foreign governments, notably Kenya, Egypt, and the UAE. Among the key figures in this shifting political landscape is Galmudug President Abdi Kariye Qoor Qoor, a seasoned political operator with a history of alliances and rivalries. Once a key ally of Farmaajo and former intelligence chief Fahad Yasin, Qoor Qoor has recently reconciled with Puntland’s President Said Abdulla Deni. Together, they attempted to convene a meeting of regional leaders excluding Roble a move widely seen as an attempt to sideline him before abruptly cancelling the gathering.
On Wednesday, government troops in Mogadishu’s Wadajir District opened fire on former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy, escalating Somalia’s political tensions. Hassan Sheikh, en route to a meeting, escaped unharmed, but the incident called an “assassination attempt” by the opposition threatens fragile dialogue between Prime Minister Mohammed Roble and opposition leaders. While Justice Minister Abdulqadir M. Nur labeled the shooting “accidental,” the attack’s timing and context raise serious doubts. This is the second time in three months that Hassan Sheikh has come under fire from government forces, fueling speculation of politically motivated targeting. Past incidents involving Turkish-trained Harama’ad and Gorgor units have already strained trust. With Somalia in the midst of a contested electoral process, the incident could disrupt unity between Roble and Hassan Sheikh both aligned with the Dam al-Jadid group.
On May 1st, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo formally withdrew his illegal claim to a two-year term extension, delegating responsibility for election management and security to acting Prime Minister Mohammed Roble while retaining control as Commander-in-Chief. While this move was a welcome concession, it falls short of the decisive action needed to resolve Somalia’s ongoing political and constitutional crisis. The security environment in Mogadishu remains fragmented, with irregular units under NISA command and limited oversight of opposition forces. International calls to “demilitarise” the capital are premature given the persistent risk posed by divided government forces. To consolidate momentum, Roble should immediately take three key steps: include both the federal government and National Salvation Forum in the planned FMS summit on 20 May, convene a Preparatory Committee of stakeholders to define the agenda and format, and address challenging issues such as NISA deployment and AU protection of opposition candidates collectively.