Kenya’s upcoming presidential election carries significant implications for the Horn of Africa, particularly regarding Somalia and the unrecognized state of Somaliland. Raila Odinga, a longtime supporter of Somaliland’s independence, is a frontrunner in the race, making Somali officials in Mogadishu uneasy. Odinga has previously voiced support for Somaliland’s autonomy and strengthened ties by attending high-profile events promoting Kenya-Somaliland cooperation. If elected, Raila may steer Kenya toward greater bilateral engagement with Hargeisa. However, recognition of Somaliland remains unlikely due to the complexities of regional diplomacy and AU policy. Still, Odinga’s influential position within the African Union could provide Somaliland with valuable indirect advocacy. On the commercial front, Kenyan businesses including those linked to the Kenyatta family have shown interest in Somaliland, and Odinga’s leadership could further open these economic doors.