Somalia appears on the brink of another seismic political change. Under growing political strain and losing ground to a resurgent Al-Shabaab, the possibility of Mogadishu's fall or negotiated capitulation to the jihadists in the coming months continues to grow. With Al-Shabaab rapidly taking advantage of the growing political chaos, Somalia's transitional federal project is more imperilled than ever. The country's regression from a fragile state to a failing one seems increasingly inevitable.
Al-Shabaab’s persistence in Somalia is less a purely military problem and more a governance challenge. US AFRICOM commander Gen. Stephen Townsend recently highlighted that Somalia’s political dysfunction exacerbated by the federal government’s conflicts with member states and the extra-constitutional extension of the president’s term is a greater obstacle than the insurgency itself. Years of counterterrorism campaigns, even those achieving territorial gains against Al-Shabaab since 2010, have failed to stabilize recovered areas due to poor governance, lack of local support, and ineffective political leadership. Newly liberated regions often became unstable, ungoverned, or prey to clan rivalries, while government troops engaged in predatory practices, alienating local populations. Scholars like David Kilcullen emphasize that successful counterinsurgency requires winning the public, not merely defeating the enemy. In Somalia, the connection between governance and security is stark: without political and administrative reforms accompanying military victories, Al-Shabaab remains resilient. The insurgent group continues to exploit weak institutions, poor leadership, and local grievances to sustain influence and operations across Somalia. Strengthening governance, ensuring accountability, and improving federal-local coordination are essential to complement military action and reduce the enduring threat posed by Al-Shabaab to Somalia and the wider region.