Somalia stands at a critical crossroads as caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble convenes the National Consultative Forum with the Federal Government, Federal Member States (FMSs), and the Banadir Regional Administration. The agenda focuses on finalizing preparations for the House of the People elections, electoral funding, and resolving deep-seated disputes that threaten the democratic process. Allegations of widespread corruption, bias in candidate selection, and manipulation by both FGS and FMS leaders have cast serious doubt on the legitimacy of the upcoming vote. Key issues, such as the unresolved Somaliland and Gedo disputes, have further fueled political instability. Meanwhile, reports of clan militarization in Galmudug and HirShabelle raise fears of escalating violence, displacement, and humanitarian crises. The shadow of Afghanistan’s collapse looms large, emboldening extremist groups like Al-Shabaab as Somalia’s political class remains entangled in election disputes. Without transparency, accountability, and an inclusive roadmap, donor confidence may erode, jeopardizing both funding and international support. PM Roble must act decisively setting clear milestones, ensuring impartiality, and fostering dialogue between Mogadishu and regional states. Commitment to federalism, security sector reform, and constitutional review will be essential to prevent Somalia from slipping into further turmoil.
In a dramatic week for Somalia, two key events signaled the resurgence of Fahad Yasin’s influence and the reactivation of the country’s entrenched deep state. First, a commission led by Prime Minister Roble released its report on the murder of intelligence officer Ikraan Tahliil, effectively absolving the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) of any wrongdoing. Evidence, including CCTV footage and key testimonies, was downplayed or dismissed, leaving many convinced the case was whitewashed. Second, Abdisaid Ali Muse, a close Fahad ally, was shifted from his role as National Security Advisor to Foreign Minister a move seen less as a promotion and more as a reorganization of Villa Somalia’s inner circle. These developments underscore the waning influence of PM Roble, whose promises of justice in the Ikraan case have gone unfulfilled, further eroding his credibility. Meanwhile, speculation persists that Ikraan’s death was linked to sensitive intelligence about Somali military recruits in Eritrea and their alleged deployment to Tigray. With Fahad Yasin back on the political rise, concerns grow over the fairness of Somalia’s electoral process and the future stability of its governance.
Somalia’s security challenges are deeply intertwined with politics, as fragile military and police institutions struggle under chronic interference and nepotism. Despite improvements in training, numbers, and equipment, the lack of a professional, politically neutral environment undermines cohesion and morale. Key positions are dominated by loyalists to former President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo, with specialized units serving partisan objectives rather than national security. Decades of structural and systemic issues exacerbate the problem. The recent political crisis has intensified these challenges, splitting the Somali National Army (SNA) and police, mobilizing clan militias, and displacing over 100,000 civilians from Mogadishu. Attacks on opposition leaders and Farmaajo’s term extension fueled militarization of politics, leaving the city divided and opposition forces in control of much of the capital. Prime Minister Mohammed Roble’s 10-point plan to disengage forces, address grievances, and reintegrate units offers a pathway toward stability. However, lasting security depends on a political roadmap agreed by all stakeholders, empowering Roble to enforce authority, unify command chains, and create conditions for credible elections, bridging the gap between Somalia’s military effectiveness and political governance.
Somalia’s opposition faces a critical moment as President Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power, taking advantage of weak international responses. Over recent weeks, the opposition has engaged in talks with caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, hoping to achieve democratic concessions. However, these efforts have largely been undermined by Villa Somalia, which perceives Roble’s negotiations as yielding too much. The opposition Council of Presidential Candidates finds itself adrift, with its restraint and peaceful gestures including suspending mass protests unreciprocated by both Farmaajo and international partners. Meanwhile, the term “spoiler” has been weaponized against the opposition, framing it as obstructive and enabling Farmaajo to maintain an upper hand. Farmaajo, emboldened by key international backers, continues to buy time, consolidate his illegal mandate extension, and manipulate the electoral process. With at least five months to influence polling outcomes, the opposition must craft a proactive strategy. This includes demanding Farmaajo’s resignation, safeguarding electoral fairness, and revitalizing peaceful civil disobedience to pressure the regime. Without decisive action, the opposition risks being marginalized and legitimizing Farmaajo’s undemocratic maneuvers. Crafting a robust, unified approach is essential to protect Somalia’s democratic process, limit electoral manipulation, and ensure a fair and transparent transition of power.