OPOV or not OPOV? That is the Shakespearean question upon which Somalia's political future would depend. But is it really? The question has consumed the country and commentators for months, but the very term itself-- 'one-person, one-vote' (OPOV)-- does not begin to reflect the situation today. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's (HSM) professed commitment to conduct OPOV elections for the federal parliament in May 2026 is both a disingenuous misnomer and a deft gesture of political sleight of hand. For a host of reasons, it is by now apparent to all concerned that an OPOV poll in Somalia is inconceivable under present circumstances. Even HSM has privately acknowledged as much. So why are we still talking about it?
Much of the federal government's electoral agenda hinges on South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen. The regional leader, inserted into his position in Baidoa in December 2018, is the only remaining senior 'elected' non-Hawiye politician still aligned with the federal government. For much of 2024, Laftagareen played a careful balancing act between Addis-- upon which his security depends-- and Mogadishu-- the distributors of his political budget. Where he aligns himself in the coming months regarding the model for South West's long-overdue regional presidential elections could prove the final domino for the growing opposition against Villa Somalia's constitutional and electoral rewrites.