On May 1st, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo formally withdrew his illegal claim to a two-year term extension, delegating responsibility for election management and security to acting Prime Minister Mohammed Roble while retaining control as Commander-in-Chief. While this move was a welcome concession, it falls short of the decisive action needed to resolve Somalia’s ongoing political and constitutional crisis. The security environment in Mogadishu remains fragmented, with irregular units under NISA command and limited oversight of opposition forces. International calls to “demilitarise” the capital are premature given the persistent risk posed by divided government forces. To consolidate momentum, Roble should immediately take three key steps: include both the federal government and National Salvation Forum in the planned FMS summit on 20 May, convene a Preparatory Committee of stakeholders to define the agenda and format, and address challenging issues such as NISA deployment and AU protection of opposition candidates collectively.
Somalia faces a mounting political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted a hurried Kinshasa visit to request African Union mediation on the country’s stalled electoral process. Farmaajo portrayed his government as seeking a “Somali-led and Somali-owned” dialogue to restore trust and advance democratic governance, but the effort was curtailed to accommodate Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the National Salvation Forum, formally addressed the UN Security Council, denouncing Farmaajo’s two-year term extension as illegal and unconstitutional, warning it could unravel the nation’s fragile peace. On the ground in Mogadishu, opposition-aligned security forces have taken positions across nearly half of the city, including Abgaal, Hodan, Dayniile, and Barmuuda districts, heightening tensions. A recent assassination attempt by the new NISA militia “Duufaan,” reportedly trained in Eritrea, underscores the volatile security environment. Opposition leaders, including former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryare and General Mohamud Mohamed ‘Koronto,’ are consolidating forces to challenge Farmaajo’s grip, threatening Mogadishu’s stability. International partners face a critical decision: rely on Farmaajo’s diplomatic maneuvers or act decisively to prevent conflict. With tensions rising and armed opposition presence growing, it is clear that hope alone cannot stabilize Somalia’s capital, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures.
Somalia’s electoral system is at a critical juncture, with the collapse of two decades of negotiated electoral cycles leaving the country divided. Currently, two parallel processes are underway: one led by former President Farmaajo and the other by the opposition National Salvation Forum (NSF). The international community’s repeated warnings against partial or unilateral elections have proved ineffective, reflecting the urgency of new approaches to restore credibility. For a unified electoral process to succeed, the International Community must take an active leadership role, bringing all Somali actors together, brokering settlements, and acting as guarantors. Farmaajo must recognize his status as a candidate among three former presidents and relinquish control over electoral oversight. Any attempt to delay or manipulate the process, or to use military force against Federal Member States or the opposition, should prompt punitive measures. If portions of the 17 September 2020 framework agreement remain contentious, Somalia should revert to the 2016-17 electoral model to ensure fairness and legitimacy. Immediate, decisive action is required to stabilize political incentives, safeguard democratic processes, and restore trust between the government, opposition, and international stakeholders. Without intervention, Somalia risks further fragmentation, political instability, and erosion of democratic norms.