Kenya–Somalia relations have long been influenced by a small but powerful group of Kenyan-Somali elites. While the broader Kenyan public remains largely disconnected from Somali politics, figures like Gen. Mahmoud Mohamed, Yusuf Hajji, and Aden Duale have historically played a central role in shaping Kenya’s policy toward Somalia. From the failed Azania buffer zone project to support for Ahmed Madoobe’s Ras Kamboni brigade, these maneuvers reveal how clan interests and personal networks often trump national strategies. The intervention in Somalia in 2011, catalyzed by kidnappings in Lamu and Dadaab, marked a turning point. Kenya’s military presence deepened, but diplomatic tensions intensified under Somalia’s President Farmaajo. His centralization efforts clashed with Kenya-backed Jubaland leaders, leading to severed diplomatic ties and border tensions.
Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble’s recent trip to Nairobi marked a significant step in easing tensions between Kenya and Somalia. Meeting with President Uhuru Kenyatta at State House, the two leaders engaged in what officials called “frank and sincere” discussions. Symbolic gestures, including Roble dressing Kenyatta in traditional Somali attire, showcased goodwill and a desire for renewed friendship. However, beneath the cordial tone, longstanding disputes remain unresolved. The maritime boundary conflict continues to strain relations, with Kenya seeking a negotiated settlement to advance oil and gas projects in the Lamu Basin. Roble maintained Somalia’s preference for the court process, echoing President Farmaajo’s stance. Economic tensions persist over Somalia’s two-year ban on Kenyan qat, a lucrative trade now monopolized by Farmaajo’s relatives using Ethiopian supply. Political pressures in Kenya, especially from the Meru miraa farmers ahead of the 2022 elections, have intensified calls for trade resumption.