Kenya–Somalia relations are showing unexpected improvement under President William Ruto and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Contrary to early predictions that Ruto would take a hardline stance, he has adopted a pragmatic and cooperative approach. Since taking office, Ruto has reaffirmed Kenya’s commitment to working with Somalia on shared priorities, including degrading Al-Shabaab, boosting cross-border security, and enhancing economic cooperation. A key agenda item is the miraa trade. Ruto seeks to streamline exports directly from Kenyan farmers to Somalia, cutting out middlemen who dominate the lucrative trade. While the outcome remains unclear, the move reflects his focus on supporting local producers while navigating sensitive political implications for Somalia. Ruto’s foreign policy toward Somalia emphasizes continuity, particularly in maintaining political influence in Jubaland, an area of strategic importance along the Somali–Kenyan border. The appointment of Aden Barre Duale, an ethnic Somali from the Ogadeen clan, as Kenya’s Defence Minister underscores this strategy. Although challenges remain, such as the unresolved maritime dispute and potential tensions over trade, early fears of a disruptive Kenyan foreign policy have proven unfounded. Instead, Ruto has emerged as a cautious yet creative leader, strengthening regional ties and fostering cooperation with Somalia.
Kenya and Somalia are making a fresh attempt to improve strained bilateral relations, with Kenyan Foreign Minister Rachel Omamo visiting Mogadishu to meet her Somali counterpart, Mohamed Abdirizaq. Backed by the United States and other international partners, the initiative aims to strengthen cooperation on security, economic ties, and political dialogue. Both nations have a shared interest in stabilizing their relationship, especially in countering the growing Al-Shabaab threat. The militant group has entrenched itself in Somalia’s Gedo region, launching frequent attacks into Kenya’s Mandera County. Improved intelligence sharing and coordinated border operations could help degrade Al-Shabaab’s capabilities and reduce the need for controversial Kenyan airstrikes, which have often fueled tensions.
Kenya–Somalia relations have entered a tense phase marked by a three-month flight ban announced by Nairobi, citing insecurity. The move follows an unconvincing Qatar-brokered truce that lacked serious negotiations on unresolved disputes. A key flashpoint is Somalia’s letter opposing AU envoy John Mahama, accused of being too close to Kenya. Another major issue is the qat trade: while Somalia maintains a ban on Kenyan qat imports, it quietly allows shipments from Ethiopia, fueling Kenyan accusations of double standards. For Nairobi, this is not only a trade dispute but also a political concern, especially in Meru County, a stronghold of Kenya’s ruling alliance and home to many miraa farmers. Beyond the qat row, maritime disputes and tensions in the Gedo region continue to strain ties. Both governments appear to see limited downside in maintaining the standoff: Kenya aims to deny President Farmaajo political gains in his final months, while Villa Somalia leverages nationalist rhetoric to bolster domestic support.
Kenya and Somalia relations remain fragile due to short-term, quid pro quo approaches that fail to address long-term strategic interests. Tentative moves to ease tensions between Nairobi and Mogadishu are driven primarily by immediate political calculations rather than sustainable policy frameworks. Kenya, facing setbacks in the maritime dispute at The Hague, is keen to protect its investments in the Lamu Basin and has pulled out of the case, anticipating an inevitable ruling in Somalia’s favor. This has prompted Nairobi to seek concessions from Somalia, including the handover of warlord Abdirashid Janan to President Farmaajo, as part of broader efforts to recalibrate bilateral ties. However, Farmaajo’s refusal to leave Villa Somalia and his potential pursuit of a parliamentary mandate extension complicate Kenya’s strategy. The Somali president is reportedly pushing Kenya to abandon long-standing allies in Jubaland and to recognize his continued authority, heightening risks in an already transactional relationship. These developments underscore the limitations of short-term political bargaining and the dangers of relying on temporary deals to manage complex regional disputes. Analysts warn that without a clear, strategic approach, Kenya’s attempts at appeasing Mogadishu could backfire, undermining regional stability, long-term investments, and its influence in Horn of Africa politics.