Al-Shabaab activities are escalating sharply along a 100-kilometer strip of the Kenya–Somalia border, targeting counties like Lamu, Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera. A recent Al-Kataib video showcased Kenyan prisoners of war and foreign fighters from East Africa, signaling both recruitment success and intent to strike inside Kenya. Since the release, IEDs, ambushes, and abductions have surged, with signs of increased militant presence in Mombasa. Central to this rise is unrest in Somalia’s Gedo region. Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forces have taken control of Gedo to undermine the Jubaland administration, but this has paradoxically allowed Al-Shabaab to thrive. El-Adde, now believed to be a key Al-Shabaab operational hub and possible regional headquarters, facilitates cross-border attacks into Kenya. Kenya’s airstrikes have proven ineffective and risk civilian backlash.