The Horn of Africa is witnessing an unprecedented surge in Middle Power influence, reshaping its geopolitical and security landscape. Militarization has intensified, with Djibouti hosting over a dozen foreign military bases, including those of China, the U.S., Japan, and soon Saudi Arabia. Somalia has become a battleground for Gulf rivalries, with the federal government aligning with the Qatar–Turkey axis while regional states lean towards the UAE–Saudi bloc. This growing competition fuels authoritarianism, allowing strongmen like Eritrea’s Isaias Afewerki, Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Somalia’s Mohamed Farmaajo, and Sudan’s Gen. al-Burhan to bypass Western pressure and secure rapid, opaque support from Middle Eastern patrons. Middle Powers prioritize personal alliances over institutional reforms, ensuring their influence at each electoral cycle. While Western actors promote democracy, conflict resolution, and stability, their influence is waning against the assertive authoritarian agendas of Middle Powers. Gulf states and regional powers now dominate the Horn’s political recalibration, favoring illiberal governance structures over reformist movements.