The legal challenge by former Somali intelligence chief and National Security Adviser Fahad Yasin to regain his parliamentary seat has become a defining moment in Somalia’s turbulent political scene. After the Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) removed his name over allegations of fraud and manipulation, Yasin has turned to the Supreme Court, despite it having no jurisdiction over electoral disputes. His move reflects a sharp decline in his political dominance, as both acting Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and the FEIT remain firm in rejecting any reversal. The case underscores the broader struggle between President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s camp and opposition forces, particularly over the contested Gedo seats. Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe has rejected Farmaajo’s proposals to split these seats, promising free and fair elections instead. Meanwhile, tensions remain high over the expulsion of African Union envoy Francisco Madeira, with political temperatures rising in Mogadishu.
Ethiopia’s recent decision to redeploy its troops from southern Somalia marks a significant shift in the region’s security landscape. The Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) will abandon Forward Operating Bases in Gedo and South West State, replacing them with mobile teams based in Baidoa. While this move is intended to bolster internal security in Ethiopia amid escalating domestic conflicts, it carries far-reaching implications for Somalia’s fragile stability. The withdrawal leaves critical areas along the Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia tri-border vulnerable, creating potential security vacuums that could be exploited by armed groups. This transition also disrupts coordination between regional forces and AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) operations, complicating counterinsurgency strategies against Al-Shabaab. Local communities dependent on ENDF presence for protection may face heightened insecurity, while political tensions between Mogadishu, regional states, and Ethiopia could intensify. The development underscores the intricate link between Ethiopia’s internal challenges and broader regional security.