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  • The Somali Wire 294
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  • The Horn Edition 31
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  • Published November 30, 2022

    In early November, Al‑Shabaab launched two successful assaults on Qayib, a village in Somalia’s Galgaduud region, within just 17 days. The militants overran Somali National Army (SNA) and Ma’awisley militia positions, seizing weapons, vehicles, and other resources before retreating. Similar tactics were used weeks earlier in Yasoman, Hiiraan region, where Al‑Shabaab ambushed reinforcements sent to reclaim lost positions. These hit‑and‑run raids reveal gaps in the government’s operational strategy, as forces remain focused on holding towns while leaving rural areas and supply routes vulnerable. Without secure supply lines, recently liberated areas risk falling back under militant control, eroding public trust. Analysts warn that to counter this, the SNA and Ma’awisley must increase mobility, leverage local terrain knowledge, and pursue retreating militants to disrupt future attacks. Al‑Shabaab avoids direct confrontation, preferring to overstretch and exhaust government forces. Opening multiple offensive fronts could force the group to concentrate only on its strongholds, such as Jilib. Intelligence‑driven planning, clear objectives, troop rotation, and sustained pressure are key to preventing Al‑Shabaab from regaining momentum. Without a shift in strategy, these recurrent rural offensives could undermine Somalia’s broader counterterrorism gains.

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