Speculation that Somalia, Ethiopia, and Eritrea may establish a joint defense and security pact has sparked concern among regional analysts and Somali political figures. Such an agreement would consolidate authoritarian practices in the Horn of Africa, destabilize Somalia’s fragile democracy, and undermine reform efforts across the region. Somalia’s President Farmaajo, facing a political deadlock and refusing to leave Villa Somalia, could leverage the pact to expel AMISOM and extend his grip on power indefinitely with support from regional allies. In Ethiopia, PM Abiy’s military cooperation with Eritrea has helped contain internal conflicts, including the Tigray war, while Eritrea itself continues to export instability across borders. Under a tripartite security arrangement, Eritrea could extend its influence over Somalia and Ethiopia, shaping regional politics to its advantage while circumventing international sanctions. Critics warn that the pact would create an axis of entrenched “Big Men,” reinforce authoritarian learning, reverse democratic gains, and escalate regional instability. The alliance’s strategic implications could ripple across the Horn, threatening not only Somalia’s democracy but also peace and security in neighboring countries. Vigilance and coordinated international engagement are essential to mitigate the risks posed by this potential alliance.
The meeting in Halane between President Farmaajo and regional leaders is unlikely to produce a lasting solution for Somalia’s stalled electoral process. Past agreements have consistently unraveled once international attention waned, exposing the fragility of pacts imposed under external pressure. Farmaajo’s actions over the last two years reveal that he does not seek a credible vote. His priority has been to buy time and consolidate power, aiming for a regime extension by any means necessary. Throughout his tenure, Farmaajo has emphasized the need for a “strong government” over democratic elections, signaling intentions to weaken Somalia’s federal system, sideline opposition, and establish autocratic control. International partners, in their short-term approach, risk legitimizing another unstable electoral pact that Villa Somalia will almost certainly ignore. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey’s growing influence undermines Western leverage, reducing the effectiveness of traditional diplomacy in Somalia. Opportunities to encourage a peaceful transition such as nudging Farmaajo to step down after 8 February or supporting the opposition led National Salvation Council were missed. Without a coordinated strategy that accounts for these realities, Somalia faces continued political instability. International actors must recalibrate their approach, focusing on long-term democratic reforms rather than temporary deals that entrench Farmaajo’s power.