Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo is emerging as the frontrunner in Somalia’s upcoming presidential election not because of widespread popularity, but due to strategic manipulation of the electoral process. Backed by Qatar and aided by influential allies like Fahad Yasin, Farmaajo has secured significant support through coercion, spending, and political manoeuvring. His influence stretches across key regions, with solid backing from South West State, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and parts of the Somaliland bloc. However, his dominance in Gedo, particularly in Garbahaarey, remains hotly contested by Jubaland’s leadership. While his return is not expected to trigger armed conflict, many analysts warn that another term under Farmaajo would stifle political progress and deepen Somalia’s instability. The potential exclusion of votes from Garbahaarey due to logistical delays adds another layer of uncertainty to an already tense process. Key rivals like Abdullahi Deni and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed present formidable challenges, and alliances could shift rapidly in the lead-up to the final vote.