In the 21st century alone, Palmyra, Tigray, the Buddhas of Bamiyan, Odessa, and Khartoum, and many more besides, have all borne witness to targeted cultural violence, wiping out centuries and millennia of worship, artefacts, and unique histories that can never be reclaimed. Some have been targeted for theological or religious reasons– such as the ancient sites in Palmyra by Daesh– or part of a broader genocidal attempt to stamp out a civilisation– as was the case in Tigray– or simply greed– like the looting of the Khartoum museums by the Rapid Support Forces. But in many cases, it denotes a rewriting of history, an attempt by a political movement or armed group to coerce and impose their particular vision for the country on the objects, buildings, and cultural identities that comprise it.
After months of delays, Somalia’s indirect elections concluded with the swearing-in of the 11th Parliament on April 14. The process, marred by manipulation and backroom deals, delivered a legislature dominated by young, inexperienced members, with over 60% under 40 and far below the promised 30% quota for women. Many MPs owe their seats to political patrons like Federal Member State leaders and former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, rather than merit or competitive elections. A striking feature is the presence of at least 35 security officials, including active-duty National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) officers, raising concerns over parliamentary impartiality. The early sessions have already been chaotic, with MPs storming the podium, political boycotts, and even mortar attacks failing to halt proceedings.
Somalia is facing one of its most serious political crises in recent years, triggered by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s suspension of Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. The suspension, announced in December 2021, has deepened tensions between the executive branches, sparking fears of renewed instability in a country already battling insecurity, economic challenges, and humanitarian crises. Farmaajo accuses Roble of corruption and misuse of public land, while Roble calls the suspension an unconstitutional move aimed at derailing the long-delayed elections. The political standoff has polarized Somali society, with both leaders rallying military and political support. This power struggle comes at a critical moment when Somalia is struggling to complete its parliamentary elections, fight Al-Shabaab insurgency, and maintain fragile unity among its federal states. Analysts warn that the dispute could derail electoral timelines, weaken governance, and heighten the risk of violence. The African Union, United Nations, and international partners have urged both sides to resolve their differences peacefully and prioritize national stability. As the crisis unfolds, Somalia stands at a crossroads between fragile progress and a dangerous slide back into political chaos, with the fate of its democratic process hanging in the balance.
The case of Ikraan Tahlil, a pioneering National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) cybersecurity analyst, has become both a political flashpoint in Somalia and a symbol of the fragile gains women have made in the country. Recruited in 2017 on merit, Ikraan rose to head NISA’s cybersecurity division an exceptional achievement in a male-dominated field. Her murder has not only sparked a constitutional crisis between President Farmaajo and Prime Minister Roble but also raised deeper questions about the durability of women’s rights in fragile states. Her story echoes recent events in Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s return to power swiftly reversed two decades of progress for women, replacing female-led ministries with male-only leadership and banning most women from public roles. Like the Taliban, Al-Shabaab’s extremist ideology offers no space for women like Ikraan to hold high-ranking positions in the public security sector. The Somali government and its international partners must ensure that any future political settlement with Al-Shabaab protects and advances women’s rights, particularly in sectors where they have historically been underrepresented. Ikraan’s legacy underscores that a peace which sidelines half the population is neither just nor sustainable.
Ikraan Tahlil, a young and dedicated NISA officer, vanished on 26 June 2021, triggering a chain of political events that would plunge Somalia into crisis. Known for her work liaising between NISA and the Banadir Regional Authority, Ikraan’s disappearance was followed by conflicting reports, with the government initially claiming she was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab an allegation swiftly denied by both her family and the group itself. As public outrage mounted, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble demanded a transparent investigation, clashing with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and then NISA director Fahad Yasin. Roble’s dismissal of Fahad deepened the standoff, with Farmaajo countering by appointing his own loyalists to key security positions. Ikraan’s family pursued legal action against senior NISA officials, further inflaming tensions. The political rift has since evolved into a constitutional crisis, with the threat of a no-confidence motion against Roble and potential violence looming.
Somalia’s political tensions have escalated following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial decision to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of NISA agent Ikraan Tahliil. The killing, believed to be politically motivated, has become a flashpoint in the ongoing power struggle with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue the move undermines transparency by placing the investigation under executive control, potentially shielding key figures such as former NISA chief Fahad Yasin. Farmaajo’s attempts to retain loyalists and his resistance to Fahad’s dismissal have backfired, enabling Roble to consolidate power and public support. The loss of Fahad long regarded as Farmaajo’s key political strategist and foreign funding link has weakened the president’s re-election prospects. Meanwhile, speculation grows over potential parliamentary maneuvers, including a no-confidence motion against Roble, that could trigger a constitutional crisis.
Somalia’s fragile political stability faces renewed turbulence following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial move to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) agent Ikraan Tahliil. The case, widely believed to be politically motivated, has shaken public trust and intensified the power struggle between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue that shifting the investigation back under the executive branch will compromise transparency and shield high-level figures, including former NISA chief Fahad Yasin, from accountability. Farmaajo’s resistance to Fahad’s dismissal and subsequent attempts to install loyalists have been met with firm opposition from Roble, who has gained significant political ground. Fahad’s removal is a major blow to Farmaajo’s re-election prospects, as it disrupts his financial and strategic support network from foreign allies such as Qatar and Turkey.
Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has emerged stronger in Somalia’s ongoing power struggle with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. This week’s dramatic events in Mogadishu, centered on the leadership of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), revealed a decisive shift in the balance of power. Farmaajo deployed Eritrean-trained Duufaan forces to secure NISA headquarters for his appointee, Yasin Farey, but two NISA-affiliated units defected, siding with Roble’s choice, General Bashir Goobe. This move is expected to result in Gen Goobe’s installation as temporary NISA Director General. Farmaajo’s influence has sharply declined, limited to a small coalition of MPs and regional allies. His position has been further undermined by the Ikraan Tahlil murder case, in which the victim’s family has filed charges against senior security figures, including Farmaajo’s close ally, Fahad Yasin. With public and opposition support rallying behind Roble, Fahad’s political future is in doubt.
Somalia’s security challenges are deeply intertwined with politics, as fragile military and police institutions struggle under chronic interference and nepotism. Despite improvements in training, numbers, and equipment, the lack of a professional, politically neutral environment undermines cohesion and morale. Key positions are dominated by loyalists to former President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo, with specialized units serving partisan objectives rather than national security. Decades of structural and systemic issues exacerbate the problem. The recent political crisis has intensified these challenges, splitting the Somali National Army (SNA) and police, mobilizing clan militias, and displacing over 100,000 civilians from Mogadishu. Attacks on opposition leaders and Farmaajo’s term extension fueled militarization of politics, leaving the city divided and opposition forces in control of much of the capital. Prime Minister Mohammed Roble’s 10-point plan to disengage forces, address grievances, and reintegrate units offers a pathway toward stability. However, lasting security depends on a political roadmap agreed by all stakeholders, empowering Roble to enforce authority, unify command chains, and create conditions for credible elections, bridging the gap between Somalia’s military effectiveness and political governance.
On May 1st, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo formally withdrew his illegal claim to a two-year term extension, delegating responsibility for election management and security to acting Prime Minister Mohammed Roble while retaining control as Commander-in-Chief. While this move was a welcome concession, it falls short of the decisive action needed to resolve Somalia’s ongoing political and constitutional crisis. The security environment in Mogadishu remains fragmented, with irregular units under NISA command and limited oversight of opposition forces. International calls to “demilitarise” the capital are premature given the persistent risk posed by divided government forces. To consolidate momentum, Roble should immediately take three key steps: include both the federal government and National Salvation Forum in the planned FMS summit on 20 May, convene a Preparatory Committee of stakeholders to define the agenda and format, and address challenging issues such as NISA deployment and AU protection of opposition candidates collectively.
On 1 May, Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo made a major concession, allowing Prime Minister Mohammed Roble to take full responsibility for election preparations and election security. Parliament also voted to annul Farmaajo’s controversial two-year term extension. The move signals a potential pathway toward credible elections in Somalia, following months of political deadlock, violent clashes in Mogadishu, and international pressure. Despite this step, challenges remain. Farmaajo retains control over the army and national security, creating an artificial split in command that risks prolonging instability. The opposition has called for a unified chain of command to restore confidence, rebuild the military and police, and prevent reprisals against officers aligned with the National Salvation (Badbaado Qaran) Forces.
Prime Minister Mohammed Roble hosted a crucial iftar gathering with leading politicians from the Hawiye clan, including presidential candidates Hassan Sheikh Mahmud, Abdirahman Abdishakur, and Hassan Khayre, along with pro-Farmaajo regional presidents Abdi Kariye Qoor Qoor and Ali Abdullahi Hussein Gudlaawe. The meeting showcased a relaxed atmosphere, highlighting Roble’s attempts to position himself as a mediator capable of brokering a peaceful resolution to Somalia’s political standoff. Roble leveraged his status as the senior-most Hawiye in government to appeal for restraint, urging leaders to stand down forces and avoid escalating tensions. However, his role remains delicate; the Prime Minister has largely been ceremonial, often bypassed by ministers and constrained by Villa Somalia. Farmaajo’s reliance on Roble as a bridge to the international community underscores both the opportunities and limitations of his position.
In the early hours of the morning, Somalia’s embattled President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo delivered a pre-recorded televised address, attempting to reassure the nation while reaffirming the 17 September electoral pact and Baidoa advisory recommendations. His speech blamed domestic spoilers and foreign instigators for the escalating conflict, yet it fell on deaf ears as opposition forces had already seized control of more than half of Mogadishu. Farmaajo’s few remaining allies, including the presidents of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West State, and the Governor of Banaadir, publicly denounced his attempt to extend his mandate, while Prime Minister Roble called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. International partners welcomed these interventions, highlighting Farmaajo’s growing isolation.
Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, is once again engulfed in violence, with opposition forces seizing control of large parts of the city. While political attention focuses on President Farmaajo, Prime Minister Roble, and opposition leaders, the man with the most influence over the armed landscape may be NISA Director General Fahad Yasin. Under his leadership, NISA has evolved from an intelligence agency into a militarized force, commanding elite units such as the US-trained Gaashan and Waran, the Eritrean-trained Duufaan, Turkish-trained Gorgor, and Qatari-backed Haram’ad. Fahad’s forces have played a central role in both regional conflicts and recent Mogadishu clashes, including alleged assassination attempts on opposition figures. Despite their specialized training, some units have suffered costly battlefield failures. As other military and police commanders defect, NISA, Gorgor, and Haram’ad remain the core of Farmaajo’s protection though even these could fragment along clan lines.
On Sunday evening, Mogadishu descended into some of its worst violence in years, as rival armed groups clashed across the city during Ramadan. For nearly five hours, mortars, RPGs, and heavy weapons echoed through the streets, forcing terrified families to flee. The fighting sparked by attacks on opposition leaders’ residences quickly escalated into a full-scale confrontation between forces loyal to President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo and opposition-aligned army, police, and clan militias. Villa Somalia itself was struck by mortar fire, and loyalist forces suffered major setbacks, retreating from key districts. While Prime Minister Mohammed Roble announced a late-night truce, the opposition disputes its existence, accusing government forces of unprovoked aggression. Observers fear the violence will intensify without decisive third-party intervention, amid speculation of possible Eritrean support for Farmaajo. Analysts argue that Farmaajo has taken a reckless gamble against a unified and deeply aggrieved clan coalition, one with the capacity for sustained resistance.
Somalia’s political landscape is facing a dramatic shift as around 400 clan leaders from the Hawiye clan issued a historic declaration rejecting President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year extension. The Pan Hawiye congress in Mogadishu marked a seminal moment, calling for annulment of the extension, depoliticisation of military and security forces, and a return to the 17 September accord. This unprecedented cohesion among Hawiye sub-clans signals growing challenges for Villa Somalia and renders Farmaajo’s extended term increasingly untenable. Traditionally divided between Habar Gedir and Mudulood factions, the Hawiye have been manipulated by Farmaajo through Senate seat allocations and key appointments to undercut opposition support. Now, the clans are uniting, mobilizing militias, and establishing defensive positions across Mogadishu, effectively reshaping the city into sub-clan enclaves reminiscent of past conflicts. Military tensions in the capital are rising, and even Farmaajo’s closest aides recognize the risk posed by his intransigence. With opposition consolidation and armed preparedness gaining momentum, Villa Somalia faces an unprecedented threat to its authority. Analysts suggest that Farmaajo’s continued defiance could provoke large-scale confrontations, making it clear that political survival without compromise is increasingly unlikely. The Hawiye’s decisive stance may well determine the next phase of Somalia’s political transition and the stability of its capital.
Somalia faces a mounting political crisis as President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo attempted a hurried Kinshasa visit to request African Union mediation on the country’s stalled electoral process. Farmaajo portrayed his government as seeking a “Somali-led and Somali-owned” dialogue to restore trust and advance democratic governance, but the effort was curtailed to accommodate Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile, Somalia’s main opposition alliance, the National Salvation Forum, formally addressed the UN Security Council, denouncing Farmaajo’s two-year term extension as illegal and unconstitutional, warning it could unravel the nation’s fragile peace. On the ground in Mogadishu, opposition-aligned security forces have taken positions across nearly half of the city, including Abgaal, Hodan, Dayniile, and Barmuuda districts, heightening tensions. A recent assassination attempt by the new NISA militia “Duufaan,” reportedly trained in Eritrea, underscores the volatile security environment. Opposition leaders, including former NISA commander Abdirahman Tuuryare and General Mohamud Mohamed ‘Koronto,’ are consolidating forces to challenge Farmaajo’s grip, threatening Mogadishu’s stability. International partners face a critical decision: rely on Farmaajo’s diplomatic maneuvers or act decisively to prevent conflict. With tensions rising and armed opposition presence growing, it is clear that hope alone cannot stabilize Somalia’s capital, emphasizing the urgent need for proactive measures.
Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo traveled to Kinshasa for high-level talks with DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, chair of the African Union, following his controversial two-year term extension. The trip is both symbolic and strategic, projecting a sense of business-as-usual while signaling to regional and international actors that Farmaajo’s extension is a fait accompli. Reports indicate a possible Qatar-mediated deal offering recognition of the extension by Kenya in exchange for de-escalation over the maritime dispute. Qatar has been actively cultivating ties in Africa to protect its investments and broker solutions between Mogadishu and Nairobi. Recognition by Kenya could strengthen Farmaajo’s position against growing domestic and international pressure, while Tshisekedi might lobby other African states to follow suit. Recent maneuvers, including Abdirashid Janan’s return to Somalia, suggest Villa Somalia is consolidating support ahead of potential opposition challenges. However, Farmaajo’s shift toward negotiating with Kenya, despite his earlier resistance, underscores his political desperation and raises doubts about his ability to deliver on agreements. The Kinshasa visit highlights the complex geopolitics surrounding Somalia’s electoral crisis, illustrating the fragile calculations and regional dynamics that shape Farmaajo’s survival strategy.
Somalia’s President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo faces increasing international isolation and domestic financial collapse, prompting a strategic “Look East” pivot. Relations with Somalia’s traditional Western partners, particularly the EU, have deteriorated over the electoral crisis, which Farmaajo bears primary responsibility for. In late 2020, the EU withheld budgetary assistance to pressure the regime, creating a major shortfall that hindered civil service and military payments. Despite this, Villa Somalia maintained the illusion of electoral progress through piecemeal negotiations, while planning for a unilateral term extension. As Western support waned, Farmaajo dispatched emissaries to the Gulf, Turkey, North Africa, and China, but key allies, including Egypt and Qatar, have been slow or reluctant to provide assistance. In a sign of growing desperation, the regime is now turning to Russia and other long-standing partners to secure financial backing. The Somali government faces mounting challenges: empty coffers, unpaid soldiers, civil servants going months without salaries, and the risk of mutinies. The coming weeks may prove decisive for Farmaajo’s ability to sustain his extended mandate, as the viability of his administration increasingly depends on foreign assistance and his capacity to maintain internal loyalty. Without a major external boost, the regime’s survival is in serious jeopardy.
Mogadishu is dangerously on edge following President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial two-year mandate extension. The city faces a rising threat of armed confrontation as rival security formations mobilize, and the federal army and intelligence services begin to fragment. Reports indicate a potential major shakeup in military command as Farmaajo consolidates his grip on power. While internal divisions within the regime are accelerating under mounting international pressure, Farmaajo still maintains strong loyalist networks capable of sustaining him through initial turbulence. At the same time, Somalia’s opposition has demonstrated restraint but is preparing an alternative administration, the Provisional Sovereign Salvation Council, which could trigger further clashes. Opposition leaders command significant clan-based militias equipped with heavy weaponry and battlewagons, which could overwhelm government elite units in sustained conflict. The escalating crisis highlights the urgent need for decisive international action, including sanctions targeting Farmaajo and his key supporters, to prevent Mogadishu from descending into large-scale violence. With political instability, armed rivalries, and the risk of civil strife intensifying, Somalia stands at a critical juncture that demands immediate attention to protect democratic principles and national security.