In the 21st century alone, Palmyra, Tigray, the Buddhas of Bamiyan, Odessa, and Khartoum, and many more besides, have all borne witness to targeted cultural violence, wiping out centuries and millennia of worship, artefacts, and unique histories that can never be reclaimed. Some have been targeted for theological or religious reasons– such as the ancient sites in Palmyra by Daesh– or part of a broader genocidal attempt to stamp out a civilisation– as was the case in Tigray– or simply greed– like the looting of the Khartoum museums by the Rapid Support Forces. But in many cases, it denotes a rewriting of history, an attempt by a political movement or armed group to coerce and impose their particular vision for the country on the objects, buildings, and cultural identities that comprise it.
After months of delays, Somalia’s indirect elections concluded with the swearing-in of the 11th Parliament on April 14. The process, marred by manipulation and backroom deals, delivered a legislature dominated by young, inexperienced members, with over 60% under 40 and far below the promised 30% quota for women. Many MPs owe their seats to political patrons like Federal Member State leaders and former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, rather than merit or competitive elections. A striking feature is the presence of at least 35 security officials, including active-duty National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) officers, raising concerns over parliamentary impartiality. The early sessions have already been chaotic, with MPs storming the podium, political boycotts, and even mortar attacks failing to halt proceedings.
Somalia is facing one of its most serious political crises in recent years, triggered by President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s suspension of Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. The suspension, announced in December 2021, has deepened tensions between the executive branches, sparking fears of renewed instability in a country already battling insecurity, economic challenges, and humanitarian crises. Farmaajo accuses Roble of corruption and misuse of public land, while Roble calls the suspension an unconstitutional move aimed at derailing the long-delayed elections. The political standoff has polarized Somali society, with both leaders rallying military and political support. This power struggle comes at a critical moment when Somalia is struggling to complete its parliamentary elections, fight Al-Shabaab insurgency, and maintain fragile unity among its federal states. Analysts warn that the dispute could derail electoral timelines, weaken governance, and heighten the risk of violence. The African Union, United Nations, and international partners have urged both sides to resolve their differences peacefully and prioritize national stability. As the crisis unfolds, Somalia stands at a crossroads between fragile progress and a dangerous slide back into political chaos, with the fate of its democratic process hanging in the balance.
The case of Ikraan Tahlil, a pioneering National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) cybersecurity analyst, has become both a political flashpoint in Somalia and a symbol of the fragile gains women have made in the country. Recruited in 2017 on merit, Ikraan rose to head NISA’s cybersecurity division an exceptional achievement in a male-dominated field. Her murder has not only sparked a constitutional crisis between President Farmaajo and Prime Minister Roble but also raised deeper questions about the durability of women’s rights in fragile states. Her story echoes recent events in Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s return to power swiftly reversed two decades of progress for women, replacing female-led ministries with male-only leadership and banning most women from public roles. Like the Taliban, Al-Shabaab’s extremist ideology offers no space for women like Ikraan to hold high-ranking positions in the public security sector. The Somali government and its international partners must ensure that any future political settlement with Al-Shabaab protects and advances women’s rights, particularly in sectors where they have historically been underrepresented. Ikraan’s legacy underscores that a peace which sidelines half the population is neither just nor sustainable.
Ikraan Tahlil, a young and dedicated NISA officer, vanished on 26 June 2021, triggering a chain of political events that would plunge Somalia into crisis. Known for her work liaising between NISA and the Banadir Regional Authority, Ikraan’s disappearance was followed by conflicting reports, with the government initially claiming she was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab an allegation swiftly denied by both her family and the group itself. As public outrage mounted, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble demanded a transparent investigation, clashing with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and then NISA director Fahad Yasin. Roble’s dismissal of Fahad deepened the standoff, with Farmaajo countering by appointing his own loyalists to key security positions. Ikraan’s family pursued legal action against senior NISA officials, further inflaming tensions. The political rift has since evolved into a constitutional crisis, with the threat of a no-confidence motion against Roble and potential violence looming.
Somalia’s political tensions have escalated following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial decision to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of NISA agent Ikraan Tahliil. The killing, believed to be politically motivated, has become a flashpoint in the ongoing power struggle with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue the move undermines transparency by placing the investigation under executive control, potentially shielding key figures such as former NISA chief Fahad Yasin. Farmaajo’s attempts to retain loyalists and his resistance to Fahad’s dismissal have backfired, enabling Roble to consolidate power and public support. The loss of Fahad long regarded as Farmaajo’s key political strategist and foreign funding link has weakened the president’s re-election prospects. Meanwhile, speculation grows over potential parliamentary maneuvers, including a no-confidence motion against Roble, that could trigger a constitutional crisis.
Somalia’s fragile political stability faces renewed turbulence following outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s controversial move to appoint a commission of inquiry into the murder of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) agent Ikraan Tahliil. The case, widely believed to be politically motivated, has shaken public trust and intensified the power struggle between Farmaajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble. Critics argue that shifting the investigation back under the executive branch will compromise transparency and shield high-level figures, including former NISA chief Fahad Yasin, from accountability. Farmaajo’s resistance to Fahad’s dismissal and subsequent attempts to install loyalists have been met with firm opposition from Roble, who has gained significant political ground. Fahad’s removal is a major blow to Farmaajo’s re-election prospects, as it disrupts his financial and strategic support network from foreign allies such as Qatar and Turkey.
Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has emerged stronger in Somalia’s ongoing power struggle with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. This week’s dramatic events in Mogadishu, centered on the leadership of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), revealed a decisive shift in the balance of power. Farmaajo deployed Eritrean-trained Duufaan forces to secure NISA headquarters for his appointee, Yasin Farey, but two NISA-affiliated units defected, siding with Roble’s choice, General Bashir Goobe. This move is expected to result in Gen Goobe’s installation as temporary NISA Director General. Farmaajo’s influence has sharply declined, limited to a small coalition of MPs and regional allies. His position has been further undermined by the Ikraan Tahlil murder case, in which the victim’s family has filed charges against senior security figures, including Farmaajo’s close ally, Fahad Yasin. With public and opposition support rallying behind Roble, Fahad’s political future is in doubt.
Somalia’s electoral system is at a critical juncture, with the collapse of two decades of negotiated electoral cycles leaving the country divided. Currently, two parallel processes are underway: one led by former President Farmaajo and the other by the opposition National Salvation Forum (NSF). The international community’s repeated warnings against partial or unilateral elections have proved ineffective, reflecting the urgency of new approaches to restore credibility. For a unified electoral process to succeed, the International Community must take an active leadership role, bringing all Somali actors together, brokering settlements, and acting as guarantors. Farmaajo must recognize his status as a candidate among three former presidents and relinquish control over electoral oversight. Any attempt to delay or manipulate the process, or to use military force against Federal Member States or the opposition, should prompt punitive measures. If portions of the 17 September 2020 framework agreement remain contentious, Somalia should revert to the 2016-17 electoral model to ensure fairness and legitimacy. Immediate, decisive action is required to stabilize political incentives, safeguard democratic processes, and restore trust between the government, opposition, and international stakeholders. Without intervention, Somalia risks further fragmentation, political instability, and erosion of democratic norms.
American diplomacy in Somalia has reached a troubling low amid the ongoing electoral crisis. The US embassy’s recent statement urging Somali leaders to remain in Mogadishu “until an election agreement is reached” reflects a tone-deaf and one-sided approach, failing to account for the opposition’s concerns. While the Federal Member State leaders of Puntland and Jubaland patiently waited for talks, former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo continued to obstruct the electoral process, deploying paramilitary units and intelligence forces to consolidate power. Farmaajo’s priority is not credible elections but securing a victory that guarantees his continued rule, undermining Somalia’s fragile democracy. Meanwhile, the US and other international partners have leaned on a weak framework election agreement from September, ignoring Farmaajo’s repeated violations and violent suppression of dissent. This mismanagement signals a dangerous precedent for American involvement in the Horn of Africa, highlighting the risks of biased intervention and the failure to ensure neutral mediation. Somalia’s opposition demands fair dialogue, credible electoral guarantees, and international support that is genuinely impartial. The Biden administration faces an early test of its commitment to peace and stability in Somalia, with the nation’s democratic future hanging in the balance.
High-stakes political negotiations in Somalia have hit a stalemate due to concerns over the safety and neutrality of meeting venues. Jubaland and Puntland’s insistence on secure arrangements reflects genuine fears for their leaders’ protection. On 19 February, government security forces attacked the residence of senior presidential candidates in Mogadishu, raising alarm over the risks of meeting in Villa Somalia. President Farmaajo invited opposition leaders to Mogadishu, fully aware that security concerns would become a negotiating obstacle, allowing him to delay meaningful progress. While Villa Somalia remains under his control, opposition leaders argue that Farmaajo should be recognized only as a candidate, not the sitting president, to prevent undue influence over outcomes. Halane Camp has emerged as a preferred venue because it offers a more neutral and secure environment, with the UN providing accommodation and food for participants. Ensuring the safety of all attendees is essential for fostering trust, advancing dialogue, and moving Somalia closer to resolving its protracted political crisis. Without a secure, impartial venue, negotiations risk further delays, undermining democratic processes and perpetuating instability in the country.