Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo is emerging as the frontrunner in Somalia’s upcoming presidential election not because of widespread popularity, but due to strategic manipulation of the electoral process. Backed by Qatar and aided by influential allies like Fahad Yasin, Farmaajo has secured significant support through coercion, spending, and political manoeuvring. His influence stretches across key regions, with solid backing from South West State, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and parts of the Somaliland bloc. However, his dominance in Gedo, particularly in Garbahaarey, remains hotly contested by Jubaland’s leadership. While his return is not expected to trigger armed conflict, many analysts warn that another term under Farmaajo would stifle political progress and deepen Somalia’s instability. The potential exclusion of votes from Garbahaarey due to logistical delays adds another layer of uncertainty to an already tense process. Key rivals like Abdullahi Deni and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed present formidable challenges, and alliances could shift rapidly in the lead-up to the final vote.
Fahad Yasin’s election as a Member of Parliament in Somalia marks a turning point in the nation’s political landscape. Once the de facto director of NISA, Yasin has leveraged his strategic alliances, vast Qatari-backed resources, and Islamist patronage networks to emerge as one of Somalia’s most influential power brokers. His rise illustrates a broader shift from traditional clan-based politics toward elite state capture, where political survival is increasingly determined by money, alliances, and external support rather than clan loyalty. While technically from a minority 0.5 clan, Yasin’s financial muscle and ties to Qatar and Turkey have allowed him to bypass Somalia’s entrenched clan hierarchy. His political maneuvering has reshaped parliamentary elections, sidelining clan elders and consolidating power within a small, self-serving elite. This shift risks deepening public mistrust, alienating marginalized clans, and potentially driving some toward Al-Shabaab for influence and protection. If Yasin secures a deputy speaker role, he could play a decisive role in shaping Somalia’s next government and its policies for years to come. However, his dominance raises concerns over democracy, decentralization, human rights, and security sector reform, making his political ascent both a pivotal and controversial development in Somalia’s fragile governance.