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  • The Somali Wire 445
  • The Ethiopian Cable 31
  • The Horn Edition 31
Archive
Filter by tags
Somalia (43) Al Shabaab (37) Villa Somalia (34) Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (26) Farmaajo (24) Somalia politics (18) Puntland (17) Somalia elections (17) Mogadishu (16) Ethiopia (16) Somalia political crisis (16) Somaliland (13) Jubaland (10) Mohamed Hussein Roble (8) Somalia crisis (8) Somali politics (8) NISA (8) Fahad Yasin (8) AUSSOM (7) Somalia elections 2021 (7) Abiy Ahmed (7) Somali opposition (7) Somali elections (7) Somalia security (7) Tigray (7) Eritrea (7) Kenya (7) Sudan (6) SSC-Khaatumo (6) African Union (6) Somalia drought crisis (6) TPLF (6) Amhara (6) Horn of Africa (6) Addis (6) USAID (5) Nairobi (5) OLA (5) HSM (5) Somali National Army (5) Horn of Africa geopolitics (5) Somali culture (5) Somalia elections 2022 (5) South Sudan (5) Politics (5) Humanitarian (4) Kenya Somalia relations (4) Conflict (4) US (4) Healthcare (4) Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo (4) China (4) Somalia humanitarian crisis (4) PM Roble (4) Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (4) Federalism (4) Oromo Liberation Army (4) History (4) Poetry (4) Disarmament (3) Fano (3) Federal Government (3) Women (3) Security (3) OPOV (3) GERD (3) Elections (3) Fighting (3) RSF (3) Qatar (3) Gulf (3) Mogadishu bombing 2022 (3) Al-Shabaab attacks (3) Somali security forces (3) National Salvation Forum (3) Troop Contributing Countries (3) Villa Somalia crisis (3) Mogadishu unrest (3) Somalia electoral crisis (3) Laas Aanood (3) Turkey Somalia relations (3) Mohammed Roble (3) Diaspora (3) Madoobe (3) Oromo Liberation Front (3) OLF (3) Oromo (3) Awdheegle (3) UPDF (3) SNA (3) Operation Silent Storm (3) Horn of Africa drought (3) Economy (3) NCC (3) Ethiopia Somalia relations (3) UN (3) Somalia security crisis (3) ISS (3) Hawiye (3) Somali women in politics (3) UAE (3) Oromia (3) Horn of Africa politics (3)
  • Published November 16, 2022

    Somalia’s security transition under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) echoes NATO’s experience in Afghanistan, raising concerns about long-term stability. The ATMIS mandate focuses on developing Somali forces and supporting “clear, hold, build” strategies, but history warns of the risks of oversimplifying security reform. In Afghanistan, attempts to create integrated national forces failed in a society where security is inherently local. Somalia faces similar challenges, with clan affiliations dominating politics and security structures. Special forces like Danab and Gorgor have achieved successes, but regular forces lack sustainability without foreign support. As ATMIS prepares to withdraw, experts suggest embracing local realities by formally integrating effective clan militias into Somalia’s security framework. These groups, such as the Ma’awiisley in Hiiraan and Galmudug, have shown strong motivation in fighting Al-Shabaab, driven by existential threats to their communities. A formal mechanism could link these militias to the federal and state governments, enabling rapid mobilization against extremists while reducing reliance on unsustainable national forces. Proper oversight would be essential to prevent inter-clan violence and misuse of arms. Learning from Afghanistan’s failures, Somalia’s security future may depend on blending formal structures with traditional, community-based defense systems.

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