Al-Shabaab activities are escalating sharply along a 100-kilometer strip of the Kenya–Somalia border, targeting counties like Lamu, Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera. A recent Al-Kataib video showcased Kenyan prisoners of war and foreign fighters from East Africa, signaling both recruitment success and intent to strike inside Kenya. Since the release, IEDs, ambushes, and abductions have surged, with signs of increased militant presence in Mombasa. Central to this rise is unrest in Somalia’s Gedo region. Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) forces have taken control of Gedo to undermine the Jubaland administration, but this has paradoxically allowed Al-Shabaab to thrive. El-Adde, now believed to be a key Al-Shabaab operational hub and possible regional headquarters, facilitates cross-border attacks into Kenya. Kenya’s airstrikes have proven ineffective and risk civilian backlash.
On Wednesday evening, Kenyan fighter jets carried out simultaneous airstrikes in Somalia’s Gedo region, targeting sites in Ceel Waaq (Elwak) and Ceel Adde (El-Adde). The first strike destroyed a Hormuud Telecom transmission tower, while the second, in El Adde, mistakenly hit a home, killing a mother and her baby, and injuring four other children. Somali officials condemned the strikes as “predatory” and “aggressive,” accusing Kenya of targeting civilians. Gedo’s instability is rooted in its strategic location within the Mandera Triangle bordering Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia making it a hotspot for clan rivalries, political disputes, and Al-Shabaab activity. The district of El Adde holds historical weight as the site of Kenya’s deadliest military loss in 2016. Kenyan operations in Gedo aim to disrupt Al-Shabaab communications and cross-border raids, but lack of precision weaponry and strained Somalia-Kenya relations have fueled local resentment.
Somalia is facing a growing threat from Al-Shabaab as the country’s political elite remain mired in internal disputes. Over the past year, the terrorist group has increased deadly raids, targeted killings, abductions, and IED attacks, extending its influence into urban areas, including Mogadishu. In February 2021 alone, more than 150 incidents were reported across the country, including 32 attacks in the capital. Between January and mid-March 2021, IED attacks killed nearly 200 people and injured around 150 others, primarily targeting the Somali National Army. Experts link Al-Shabaab’s resurgence directly to Somalia’s deepening political crisis. The Farmaajo regime’s focus on suppressing political opponents has diverted resources from the fight against jihadists. Military build-ups in Gedo and Mogadishu have weakened campaigns in strategic regions such as the Shabelle Valley, allowing jihadists to regain control of villages and key points. Unless Somali leaders prioritize national security over personal power struggles and demonstrate cohesion, the war against Al-Shabaab is likely to be lost. Effective coordination, unified strategy, and renewed focus on counterterrorism operations are urgently needed to protect civilians and stabilize Somalia. Without decisive action, the Islamist insurgency will continue to grow, posing severe risks to the country’s security and governance.